Judgment Under Uncertainty Analysis

Improved Essays
A lot of people think that when they make judgments and decisions that they act objectively, rationally, logically and are capable of taking in all the information they are presented with and evaluating it. However, the judgments and decisions that people make are tainted with errors and swayed in large part by a huge range of biases. In their book “Judgment under Uncertainty”, psychologists Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic and Amos Tversky published their findings on cognitive bias in which they define cognitive bias as the disposition that people have of making decisions or taking actions in an illogical manner. Some biases may relate to memory and some biases may have to do more with attention. For example, the way an individual remembers a …show more content…
Cognitive biases are usually the result of simplifying the information to process it. It is the gap between how people should reason and how people actually reason. Rules of thumb help us make sense of the world and also help us produce decisions quickly, however, they can also lead people to make bad decisions and poor judgments. If simplifying the information we process when making a judgment or decision can lead to bad decisions or poor judgments why do we do it? If we do not simplify the information around us when making a decision we will become overwhelmed and it will actually slow down the decision making process and at the same time make the process more difficult. Cognitive biases may be caused when people use mental shortcuts called heuristics to make decisions and act quickly. Although, sometimes this can lead to errors they can also be surprisingly accurate. Biases are not necessarily all bad because they serve an adaptive purpose and allow people to act quickly. For example, if you are walking down a dark alley and you see a shadow following you, a cognitive bias may cause you to think the shadow might be a mugger and you will leave the area as fast as possible. The dark shadow may have been nothing more than a flag waving in the breeze but relying on mental shortcuts can help you quickly escape dangerous situations where you need to make speedy …show more content…
One example is the stereotype that the typical serial killer is a white male in his mid-to-late twenties. According to the Serial Killer Information center, which was started by Dr. Mike Aamodt, less than 12.5% of killers in the U.S. fit that profile (Aamodt, 2016). Another example is the stereotype that all Asians are geniuses (Markman, 2016). The stereotype that all Asians are geniuses is a positive stereotype so that must be a good stereotype, right? Not exactly. We have all heard of negative stereotypes and how they negatively affect people but positive stereotypes can have a negative effect as well. The “all Asians are geniuses” stereotype sets a very high bar and puts immense pressure on these individuals. Not only that but it changes the way teachers interact with these students. If teachers assume a student is smart just because of their racial identity they may check up on them less often and offer less guidance. This can lead to self-esteem issues if they are constantly reminded that they should be really good at something that they find challenging. These type of stereotypes also lead to the person feeling depersonalized. Stereotypes of all kinds remove individuality and lump an individual into a

Related Documents

  • Improved Essays

    Alan Zupka Case Study

    • 3499 Words
    • 14 Pages

    Brief description of client Alan Zupka is a fifty year old, Caucasian gay male who appeared to be his age. He has been in a long term relationship for eight years. He was self-referred to counseling. Client has a Bachelor’s degree in psychology and is currently working on his Master’s degree in clinical mental health counseling. Client has been retired since 2008.…

    • 3499 Words
    • 14 Pages
    Improved Essays
  • Decent Essays

    Stereotypes can be solved by changing one mindset at a time. Stereotyping can help you determine someone’s identity in a positive or a negative way. In the article “Where Bias Begins: The Truth About Stereotypes” by Annie Murphy Paul, the text states, “Most people...respond more quickly when a positive word is paired with a white name or a negative word with a black name. Because our minds are more accustomed to making these associations...they process…

    • 365 Words
    • 2 Pages
    Decent Essays
  • Improved Essays

    This example prove that not all blonde girls are stupid. Another stereotype that I have hear is that “ I’m Asian so I must be a nerd that does homework everyday per week. Many people made a mistake when saying that because they do not understand or realize that whoever does their homework and turn in for a good grade and be success later in life. They do what they’re suppose to do in order to stay top in class. I also realize that diversities of student did homework everyday at home to earn a good grade but not all students that do their homework are Asians.…

    • 438 Words
    • 2 Pages
    Improved Essays
  • Decent Essays

    Confirmation Bias is the tendency to seek out information, result, and evidence that confirms one’s existing beliefs, views, and opinions. They will avoid any opposing evidence and opinions that are contradictory. In a 1979 University of Minnesota study of an imaginary woman named Jane: there were two groups, the librarian group remembered Jane as an introvert. The second group, the real estate, remembered Jane as an extrovert. Each group stuck with their original choice when asked if Jane would be good at the other profession.…

    • 87 Words
    • 1 Pages
    Decent Essays
  • Improved Essays

    In Politics cognitive dissonance is often used as a strategy to persuade voters. Cognitive dissonance is when a action conflicts with beliefs or preferences, as a result people change their beliefs or preferences to match their actions; “But precisely how to move voters successfully is a matter still not fully understood—and the raison d'etre for political strategists and pundits” (Paragraph 1). Harvard and Stanford universities have concluded that political attitudes are often a result of one’s own actions. These political attitudes can change as a result of cognitive dissonance, “…people adjust their political preferences in order to downplay cognitive dissonance…”(Paragraph 7).…

    • 641 Words
    • 3 Pages
    Improved Essays
  • Improved Essays

    Confirmation Bias

    • 565 Words
    • 3 Pages

    In our everyday lives we constantly make decisions such as what should I wear today? Or what should I make for supper? There are also the important life decisions that are made such as what should I become when I grow up? Should I get married? Or Should I work or finish up college?…

    • 565 Words
    • 3 Pages
    Improved Essays
  • Improved Essays

    Bias, which is simply when we think in a way that leads us to be wrong, is unavoidable and hard to recognize. There are thousands of different types of bias but one of the most interesting and familiar to me is called confirmation bias, which is a tendency to search, interpret and recall information that reinforces or confirms our overall beliefs rather than contradicting them. In this essay, I will talk about confirmation bias from three dimensions: why would I have confirmation bias? What sort of confirmation bias do I have in my daily life? And how can I avoid it in the future?…

    • 620 Words
    • 3 Pages
    Improved Essays
  • Decent Essays

    Known as the “knew-it-all-along” effect, the hindsight bias is the tendency to overestimate one’s abilities and claim to have known the outcome of the event before the actual event occurred. Three variables that contribute to this bias are memory distortion, inevitability, and foreseeability. Inevitably, this bias has the potential to induce negative consequences, such as myopia, which occurs when people focus on a single aspect and fail to consider other explanations, and overconfidence in judgment and memory. Hindsight is influenced and derives from cognitive and motivational inputs. Cognitive inputs are when people remember specific information which they can confirm that has happened.…

    • 209 Words
    • 1 Pages
    Decent Essays
  • Improved Essays

    Stereotypes have an enormous impact of how people feel. They can make people feel stressed, upset, anxious, and more. When people stereotype others all the time, they get tired of being criticized and will be afraid to talk because they don’t want to say something wrong and they are afraid of failure. Today, people are afraid to be themselves because they don’t want people to think something bad of them. Stereotypes hurt people, and they can be very harmful and unfair.…

    • 1419 Words
    • 6 Pages
    Improved Essays
  • Decent Essays

    Clayton Gutzmore Communication Theory SPC 3210 4/19/16 Communication Theory has been about the many ways we can communicate with each other. Over a dozen theories have been explored in this class to understand how can one send and receive messages with one another. One factor that I like to talk about is retention. This leg of the communication animal is something I believe we haven't fleshed out in this class. I always did wonder why we are able to remember certain things but find it difficult to forget the unimportant things.…

    • 494 Words
    • 2 Pages
    Decent Essays
  • Decent Essays

    The most common stereotypes are almost all negative though possibly, if one chose to pursue a little more effort, a positive could be matched against each negative. However, in some cases the effort might not be worth the effort. Some professions have quite a number of stereotypes--like farmers, truck drivers, and athletes. And, as much as we might abhor them, even the most abhorrent stereotypes have evolved based upon an element of truth. One might tend to doubt the talents of a skinny chef,…

    • 128 Words
    • 1 Pages
    Decent Essays
  • Improved Essays

    My personal experience with this group is incredibly accurate for a girl. Being the opposite gender, I am seen as not so comprehensive of boys, because I am a girl. I unseemingly know quite a lot because I spent most of my life growing up with boys although I never had a brother. I have always been surrounded by guys and when we entered our teenage years, I noticed things had started to change. I had always been a lot closer to men than women so I am capable of seeing things from a male perspective as well as a female one.…

    • 1020 Words
    • 5 Pages
    Improved Essays
  • Improved Essays

    You may use any sources you like to complete this exam. You are not allowed to ask anyone to help you with it. Answer any 5 of the following questions with two or three paragraph answers for each. Type your answers below each questions. 1.…

    • 1389 Words
    • 6 Pages
    Improved Essays
  • Superior Essays

    A classic example is with police who later find out they imprisoned an innocent person, but even after rock hard evidence that the person is innocent, the police and prosecutors will continue to believe that they did the right thing by putting that person in jail. In the book Mistakes Were Made, But Not by Me, by Carol Tavris and Elliot Aronson, this situation is described through a personal memory full of feelings and emotions, that turned out to be wrong. The authors state that “Being absolutely, positively sure a memory is accurate does not mean that it is; our errors in memory support our current feelings and beliefs.” (Tavris and Aronson). Cognitive dissonance in law enforcement is not something that can be overlooked because the decision being made affects someone's life.…

    • 1079 Words
    • 5 Pages
    Superior Essays
  • Improved Essays

    Essay On Stereotypes

    • 710 Words
    • 3 Pages

    Stereotypes affect people’s social lives, emotions, and how they interact with their environment. Many stereotypes that are deemed positive in society can have a negative impact on their target. For instance, the stereotype that all Asians are incredibly smart can be seen as a positive one. However, when students of Asian heritage go to school, they all have different learning strengths and capabilities. Due to this stereotype, they are pressured to perform extraordinarily in school.…

    • 710 Words
    • 3 Pages
    Improved Essays