The Rational Offender Model

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Chalfin and associates determined that controlling for murder, arrest rates, capital convictions relative to murders, and executions relative to lagged convictions are problematic for research involving the “rational offender model” because of possible changes in enforcement and policy. From state to state there are variations in the time from conviction to execution, with some executions being overturned. These factors can affect an individual’s decision to commit murder. Following this line of thought, Paul Horton and Gerald Leslie had this to say about the relationship between punishment and crime:
“The misplaced faith that punishment may rest upon the unrealistic assumption that people consciously decide whether to be criminal – that
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Severity of Punishment”, Valerie Wright (2010) , discussed that if there were a 100% certainty of being apprehended for committing a crime, few people would commit crimes. She further states that research to date indicates that certainty of punishment is more likely to produce deterrent benefits than the severity of punishment. Citing results from studies by The Institute of Criminology at Cambridge University (1999) and Daniel Nagin and Greg Pogarsky (2001), Wright concludes that certainty of punishment is more of a deterrent than severity of punishment (Wright 2010). Wright cites a study (Farrington, Langan, and Per-Olaf 1994) where researchers compared crime and punishment trends in the U.S., England, and Sweden and found that the statistical associations were weak and failed to find an effect for severity of punishment. Further studies cited by Wright found that longer sentences failed to enhance public safety. One would think that the longer a sentence for an offense, the less likely a person would re-offend. The researchers found that longer sentences resulted in a three percent increase in recidivism. Offenders who spent 30 months in prison had a 29% recidivism rate and prisoners serving a 12.9 month prison sentence had a 26% recidivism rate. They also found that being incarcerated rather than performing community service resulted in a 7% increase in recidivism. When sentences are shorter, offenders are more likely to maintain ties to family and society which will help the offender when re-entering society after serving a sentence. When prisoners are incarcerated for a longer period, they are more likely to become institutionalized, lose community contacts, and become isolated. These factors can contribute to

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