Forecasting Gdp Analysis

Decent Essays
Forecasting GDP

Now that we know the timely indicators to help us predict the GDP. We can look into forecasting the GDP and how it is done using the BMC. If we go back to the WEC and take a look at the relevance of each indicator. Here we can see that indicators like PMI which we discussed are highly recommended for investors to look at. Along with the survey column to see what analyst have forecasted for this specific indicator. If we take a look at PMI for example we can right click on the survey for that indicator and see how that was formulated by the economists. The ECOS (Economic Estimates) function shows the exact workings of how this is done. We can see if the estimates were being hopeful for the month or pessimistic by the actual results right next to it.

A key part of forecasting are the people who do the estimating, they are the economist. They do two things that are very important to the whole process. First they maintain the estimates of what they believe the economic indicator values will be and second they form opinions on the longer-term future on the most important statistics in the financial world like GDP, inflation, and unemployment. The later is really important
…show more content…
You have to use the information available to you and use several of the major indicators to help predict the GDP before it is published. You can do this by using the ECSU ( Economic Surprise Monitor) and pick the most important. The info given to you using this function consist of date published, actual, and level of surprise. This is how much better or worse the actual was in comparison to the estimates given by the economists. On the right hand side of the function you will see a graph with red and green on it. The red areas are the times during the time period you are looking at where there was more negative surprise then good surprise and vice versa where you see

Related Documents

  • Improved Essays

    Nt1310 Unit 2 Assignment

    • 876 Words
    • 4 Pages

    In the letter it the real GDP in 2015 was predicted to be at only 2.6% growth but if we look at the actual number for real GDP growth it was at 3.9%. With this being said GDP is still expected to grow into the 2016 year. This can be seen true with production outputs rising from a low of -1.5% at the start of 2015 to the 3.3% now. The one thing that could hinder the growth of GDP could be the growing strength of the US dollar in foreign countries.…

    • 876 Words
    • 4 Pages
    Improved Essays
  • Improved Essays

    • Discretionary vs. Nondiscretionary Fiscal Policy 685 A discretionary is the changes made by the government. It could be taxes or spending. Changes can be made every year by the president or congress. When changes are made, it’s done to expand the economy.…

    • 770 Words
    • 4 Pages
    Improved Essays
  • Improved Essays

    In recent years, GDP has been argued as an inefficient way to measure our country’s growth. The article in The New York Times, “The Rise and Fall of the G.D.P.” by Jon Gertner exemplifies to the reasons, which prove GDP alone isn’t enough to measure the U.S.’s growth throughout the year. While on the other hand, Nicholas Oulton provides readers with the evidence showing GDP’s effectiveness in measuring the nations wellbeing in his article “Hooray for GDP! GPD as a measure of wellbeing”. Gertner begins his article by explaining GDP results in the nation focusing solely on economic growth, and not anything that applies to our daily lives.…

    • 515 Words
    • 3 Pages
    Improved Essays
  • Superior Essays

    Hannah Overly Professor Hale April 22, 2016 Final Paper A Look into the Principles of Macroeconomics: Project Paper Q: What is the gross domestic product? A: Gross domestic product (GDP) is the total market value of all final goods and services produced within an economy in a given year. This is also commonly referred to as total output (O 'Sullivan, 100).…

    • 1417 Words
    • 6 Pages
    Superior Essays
  • Decent Essays

    When economic recession occurred, the part-time jobs were increasingly replaced with low-wage. According to the article “Recession Forever? 10 Reasons American Workers Are Screwed,” the author mentioned “the State and federal governments cut 835,000 jobs over the past four years, especially, middle-income positions. The new trend is the jobs concentrated in lower-wage occupations – the position would pay the federal minimum wage ($7.25 an hour).” It grew nearly “three times” as quickly as others.…

    • 230 Words
    • 1 Pages
    Decent Essays
  • Improved Essays

    The Federal Reserve manages monetary policy to achieve the following goals: price stability, high employment, economic growth, and financial market stability. To achieve these goals the Fed will decrease or increase money supply through open market operations as well as make changes to the required reserve ratio, discount rate, and interest rate. At the beginning of 1991 unemployment was an issue that needed addressing. To address this issue the Fed implemented a monetary policy which reduced the federal funds rate.…

    • 782 Words
    • 4 Pages
    Improved Essays
  • Improved Essays

    Issues with the measurement of major economic concepts- By Deep Mukherjee In the first few chapters of the book Dinner Party Economics by Richard Maranta and Eveline Adomait, there were many new topics that are measured for data and decision-making. However, there are some issues regarding the measurement of the CPI and Inflation, the GDP and economic welfare, and the money supply that I would like to highlight. Firstly, there are a couple issues regarding the measurement of the consumer price index (CPI) which in turn is used to measure inflation.…

    • 668 Words
    • 3 Pages
    Improved Essays
  • Improved Essays

    Towards the end of the 17th century, Europe’s economy was agrarian, meaning it was a type of economy that relied primarily on agricultural industry, including livestock farming or crop production. As a result of this, there was usually only just enough production to barely survive, and additionally, many people were constantly on the verge of famine. This was mostly due to the unpredictability of the current agricultural system, which allowed for bad weather and bad harvest to entirely dictate the economy. Not to mention, the complete crop failure experience every 8-9 years. In addition, contrary to typical slow population growth, during the 1600’s, due to the struggle for resources by the population and widespread poverty, birth rates were…

    • 771 Words
    • 4 Pages
    Improved Essays
  • Improved Essays

    There are a variety of ways in which different economies can be compared, including GDP comparisons, quality of life, structure of economy and government roles. Australia and Bangladesh have similar economic structures, both being mixed economies. The differences of these two nations are quite large, with great variations in Gross Domestic Products and Human Development Indices. Economic Growth Rate is a quantitative measure of an economy’s increase in Gross Domestic Product (GDP) over time. Bangladesh’s real GDP growth rate was 5.8% in 2013, much higher than Australia’s growth rate of 2.5% in 2013.…

    • 1098 Words
    • 5 Pages
    Improved Essays
  • Improved Essays

    ? The unprecedented economic recession that experienced by the United States of America in 2010 does not only give lessons among the economic policy makers, the technocrats, and among the American people. More importantly, it has become the benchmark of whatever socio-economic programs and policies to be implemented.…

    • 736 Words
    • 3 Pages
    Improved Essays
  • Improved Essays

    GDP In The United States

    • 452 Words
    • 2 Pages

    GDP is a measure of economic activity. GDP gives us a better idea of what is produced within the United States rather than what is produced by Americans-whether in the U.S or elsewhere. GDP is designed better to give information on the state of the business cycle of the United States because it only focuses on the activity within the United States. Switching to GDP makes it easier to compare with other countries because most countries were already using GDP.…

    • 452 Words
    • 2 Pages
    Improved Essays
  • Great Essays

    Nate Silver’s introduction to The Signal and the Noise offers up an intuitive definition of the split between prediction and forecast. Prediction is judgemental and accounts for future changes and opinions, whereas forecast is pure scientific fact and interpretation of the past events. Neither are anywhere close to perfectly predicting any scenario, but there are times where one produces a mostly accurate estimation of the future. Each strategy has its strengths and weaknesses, which Silver brings to light through each chapter’s main example. The introduction to The Signal and the Noise ends with a sequence of three short sentences; this short passage projects Silver’s meaning of the signal and the noise and sets the stage for the entirety…

    • 1641 Words
    • 7 Pages
    Great Essays
  • Great Essays

    Although it did officially end, many are still under the impression that the United States economy has yet to return to its pre-recession state. According to the article “Why half of U.S. adults no longer believe in the American dream” by Simone Pathe, almost half of American born citizens who at one point believed that the American Dream was “if you work hard you’ll get ahead” now think that’s not the case. The post-Recession still has an effect on Americans; economic insecurity has led 72% of Americans to think that the economy is still in a recession. Consumer confidence has been greatly affected and, in turn, impacted the overall GDP of America. A GDP is defined as Gross domestic product and is the market value of all officially recognized final goods and services produced within a country in a year, or other given period of time.…

    • 1082 Words
    • 5 Pages
    Great Essays
  • Great Essays

    3. Rationale/Executive Summary 3.1 Background of my division The Mr Price Group Limited division that I have chosen is the apparel retail division, also known as the clothing division of Mr Price. My reason for choosing the apparel division of Mr Price instead of the Home or Sport division is because the apparel sector is a fast fashion retailer and has generated a strong brand with well-known corporate social responsibility programmes. The target market of the apparel division is young and vigorous customers, mostly females between the ages of 15 – 35, who are in the LSM income groups.…

    • 1788 Words
    • 8 Pages
    Great Essays