Millennium Ecosystem Assessment

774 Words 4 Pages
Scenario planning is the process of evaluating possible future events through the consideration of alternative plausible, though not equally likely, states of the world (Mahmoud, 2009). The use of this approach considers different scenarios for the unprecedented future and explores alternatives for management. One of the major global assessments that address scenario planning due to the impact of human activity on the environment is the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (“MEA”). This global ecosystem assessment has the initiative to investigate the relationship between changes in the ecosystem and the impact on human-well-being. This case study will analyze the 2004 Southern African MEA and how scenario planning is applied for Garip River, and the limitations and alternative strategies for the success of the management for the river.
The Garip River basin is a multinational river that represents one of the greatest resources of wealth for Africa. The Garip basin has been significantly modified to be utilized by irrigation on agricultural lands, urban and industrial demands, and for the use of people. This river basin supplies water demand of 40% of the South African population (Bohensky, 2006). In fact, Africa’s major cereal production relies on the water supply of this river.
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The trade-offs between the ecosystem services provided by the Garip basin and the conservation of its natural stability is a major concern that under all the scenarios any type of ecosystem services is subject to be managed by adequate policy reform to maintain stability. A reflection of this finding is that the Garip is a developing-world basin and for instance policy reform debate whether economic growth or conservation natural resources should be consider on the policy

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