Forecasting the Passenger Traffic Movement in Lufthansa Airlines: a Supply Chain Perspective

4867 Words Nov 15th, 2012 20 Pages
Journal of Services Research
Volume 10 Number 2 October 2010 - March 2011

FORECASTING THE PASSENGER TRAFFIC MOVEMENT IN LUFTHANSA AIRLINES: A SUPPLY CHAIN PERSPECTIVE

Aniruddh Kr Singh Faculty of Management Studies University of Delhi, India. Debadyuti Das Associate Professor, Faculty of Management Studies University of Delhi, India.

The Journal of IIMT

FORECASTING THE PASSENGER TRAFFIC MOVEMENT IN LUFTHANSA AIRLINES: A SUPPLY CHAIN PERSPECTIVE
Aniruddh Kr Singh Debadyuti Das

The present paper attempts to find out the forecasted passenger traffic movement of Lufthansa Airlines on quarterly basis at a global level by employing four forecasting methods namely moving average, exponential smoothing, Holt's model and Winter's
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Only European market experienced a declining trend to the tune of 0.4% and 3% during the above periods (Lufthansa Investor Info, page 1, 2008). The above phenomenon has motivated us to apply the most popular and well-established forecasting methods with a view to finding out the forecasted demand of passenger traffic movement of Lufthansa Airlines for future periods. The main objective of the paper is to find out the quarterly forecasted demand of passenger traffic flow in Lufthansa Airlines at a global level with the help of moving average (MA), exponential smoothing (ES), Holt’s model and Winter’s model by making use of published data pertaining to passenger traffic movement in Lufthansa Airlines. In addition, the paper has also attempted to find out the most suitable forecasting model for the above problem by comparing the forecasting errors of the above four forecasting models obtained through absolute error (AE), mean squared error (MSE), mean
Journal of Services Research, Volume 10, Number 2 (October 2010 - March 2011)

65 Singh, Das absolute deviations (MAD) and mean absolute percentage error (MAPE). The following section provides a brief review of literature. Section 3 provides a brief overview of Lufthansa Airlines along with the recent data on passenger traffic movement. It contains a thorough analysis of forecasted passenger traffic movement by employing four

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