Essay on Forecast Analysis Based On Chardonnay Quarterly Sales

1276 Words Nov 29th, 2016 6 Pages
Forecast Analysis Scenario The adaptive forecast analysis shown below is from customer demand data in a time series based on Chardonnay Quarterly sales figures: Source: (SEC Filings, 2016)

The Winters’ model

Source: (SEC Filings, 2016)
The forecast method chosen for this analysis is the Winter’s Model or the “multiplicative decomposition (seasonal) method” (Forecasting in Supply Chains, 2012). This model takes into account the lever, trend, and seasonality factors with the historical customer demand data to determine future operations and production schedules to meet future demand. The Winter’s Model uses the “seasonal factors and assigns different weights to adjust the trend components” (Anderson & Semmelroth, 2016). The wine industry is cyclical in nature (Cuellar & Lucey, 2005) so the Chardonnay supply chain will need to have forecasting method that is adaptive. With the use of the Winter’s Model, the supply chain will be able to adapt the “forecasting process to adjust to the change in the demand observation” (Chopra & Meindl, 2016, p. 187).
Aggregate Planning The aggregate planning role is the “decision-making process of developing, analyzing, and maintaining a preliminary, approximate schedule of the overall operations of an organization” (Aggregate Planning, 2016). The wine industry is seasonal (THST 10-K, 2016), with the busiest sales months predicted to be in the fall. To ensure the Chardonnay wine supply chain properly plans to avoid stock outs on…

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