Estimating The Impact Of President Trump Essay
It has been said that President Trump is a quantum entity: when moving from point A to point B he will take absolutely every possible path, at the same time. Still in the same vein, probability is all we ever know, but there are a couple of relevant themes about which there is high correlation between what the then candidate proposed during the campaign and proclivities of the majority Republican Senate and House of Representatives. On the assumption that they have higher probability to being enacted, it is possible to estimate their impact in Brazil and Latin America
Firstly, trade and related policies like immigration will probably have a more protectionist, restrictive tone. The idea is to fight “unfair” competition to American firms and workers. Past Republican administrations resorted to a variety of barriers to accomplish this objective. Chart I borrows from the IMF’s Regional Economic Outlook - Western Hemisphere1 and reports a quite disparate exposure to the U.S. market. While Mexico’s exports of goods and services account for 35.3% of GDP, of which 73% go to America, Brazilian exports account for a slim 13% of GDP, of which only 12% go to the world’s biggest economy.
President Trump’s likely moves in trade and immigration themes should signify a moderate adverse shock for Latin America as a whole. However, their impact for specific countries can be quite high, Mexico, Venezuela and Central America countries being the weak…