Demographic Equation Paper

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The basic demographic equation is an effective way to determine future population rates, without the influence of political policy. The equation says that “growth rate = birth - deaths + net migration.” Europeans are dying out; their population is shrinking. One factor, fertility, has increasingly dropped. The European crude birth rate, or the number of births per 1,000 people, was 10.1 in the year 2014. Almost half a century before, in 1970, the birth rate was 16.4. Europeans seem to be having less children, as a result of the changing role of women and the changing definition of European families. The second factor, mortality, is also dropping. The crude European death rate in 2016 was 10.2 deaths per 1,000 people. This is largely due …show more content…
The first factor, fertility rates, are the highest rates in the world. However, some African countries have low birth rates, sub-Saharan African women typically have five children or more. High fertility rates lead to poverty, disease, violence, and lack of education. The second factor, mortality, is also high. The 13 highest mortality rates around the world all come from Sub-Saharan Africa. The life expectancy of these countries is less than 55 years old. The infant mortality rate of these countries is devastatingly low as well- 1 in 7 children will not live to celebrate their fifth birthdays (Angola, Central African Republic, and Chad). This is largely the result of poor access to good health care, malnutrition, disease (think Ebola outbreak), and of course, poverty. The third and final factor, net migration, varies by country. The largest rate is 22 migrants per 1,000 people (Zimbabwe), with the smallest being -10 migrants per 1,000 people (Somalia) [Data estimated in 2014]. Libya has a migration rate of 16 per 1,000 persons. Many Libyans are fleeing their war-torn country toward a better life in Europe. Still, using the basic demographic equation, we can figure that Africa’s population is exploding, as a result of their extremely high birth

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