Crystal Ball Case Study

3064 Words 13 Pages
Page Ref: 440
Topic: Simulation of an Inventory Problem Using Crystal Ball
Difficulty: Moderate

25) A Decision Table is used in Excel to try at most 2 values automatically for a parameter in the model.
Page Ref: 443
Topic: Simulation of an Inventory Problem Using Crystal Ball
Difficulty: Challenging
26) In Excel, the function =NORMINV(RAND(),100,5) will return a normally distributed random number with a standard deviation of 100 and mean of 5.
Page Ref: 415
Topic: Role of Computers in Simulation
Difficulty: Moderate

27) A binomial distribution can yield only two outcomes.
Page Ref: 416
Topic: Role of Computers in Simulation
Difficulty: Moderate

28) Monte Carlo simulation and operational gaming are the only two categories of simulation.
Page Ref: 452
Topic: Other Types of Simulation Models
Difficulty: Moderate
10.2 Excel Problems

1) Cheap Rentals has collected the following information on the demand for compact cars over the last 30 days. Daily Demand
10
11
12
13
14
Number of Days
5
7
8
5
5

a. Use the historical data to estimate the probability distribution of demand for compact
E(X) = 0(0.1333) + 1(0.2000) + 3(0.3333) + 4(0.2000) = 2.0667
c.

d. Empirical mean = 2.05 and theoretical mean = 2.0667
3) Consider the event of tossing three coins. You are interested in computing the probability of getting three heads. Use Crystal Ball to simulate the event of tossing three coins 1000 times.
a. What is the theoretical probability of getting three heads?
b. What is the percentage of getting three heads using the 1000 simulated values?

4) Consider the following game involving a single die. Someone offers to give you \$1 if you toss a 1, \$2 if you toss a 2, \$3 if you toss a 3, etc. In other words, your earnings will correspond to the face value of the die. However, to play this game, each toss will cost you \$2.50. You decide to use Crystal Ball to simulate your net earnings per toss based on 1000 simulation runs. What is your mean net earning per toss based on the simulated sample values?

Note: Theoretically, the mean earnings per toss is \$3.50 - \$2.50 = \$1.00.
5) In a game of backgammon, your movement is based on the outcome that you get from rolling a pair of dice. Tossing a pair of sixes on the very first roll will give you a significant initial advantage over your opponent. Use Crystal Ball to determine the odds of rolling a pair of sixes in 1000 simulation

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