The New York Fed Staff Forecast (2015) projects the economy to grow somewhat above its potential rate, which we estimate to be around 2 percent. However, with later-stage expansion dynamics taking hold, our forecast anticipates that the unemployment rate will decline gradually to about five percent around our assumption for the natural rate of unemployment by the end of 2016. The staff view is also that the labor force participation rate and average weekly hours worked will remain near current levels with productivity growth increasing back up toward its longer-term trend. In addition, Inflation remained low over the past year, with the four-quarter change of the total personal consumption expenditures (PCE) deflator at 0.3 percent as of the
