COMPOUND DISASTER EFFECTS IN THE 21ST CENTURY
Speculation regarding compound disaster effects is a hot debate topic in the industry as beetle kill in the early 1990’s is now entering the grey phase where the effects of such devastation are being seen to the end result. Researchers are attempting to calculate the precursor relationship between beetle kill and catastrophic fire in those areas. In addition to beetle kill, many researchers are addressing climate change in relation to fire regimes, though its effects are currently unknown.
Some researchers suggest that fire severity and intensity will drastically increase due to the extent of damage done by beetle kill, however, according to a group of researchers from the Department of Zoology at University of Wisconsin beetle kill is not a source of change in fire regimes. An increase in fuel loads resulting from beetle kill did not produce a positive correlation effect on high fire severity in the Absaroka Wilderness region (Harvey, Donato, Romme, and Turner, 2013, p. 2475). Harvey et al instead claim the primary effect beetle kill is a decline in post-fire regeneration (Douglas-fir) where the nearest live tree is more than 150m from beetle kill in low …show more content…
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) operating on a decadal scale and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects annually are measured against the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and compared with fires records between 1700 AD and into the 20th century (Hessl, McKenzie, and Schellhaas, 2004, p. 425). While major fire years correlating with La Nina years in the Southwest, no tests have been conducted in the PNW for similar correlations and the Pacific Northwest operates on an opposite spectrum to the Southwest. No consistent association between fire years and El Nico have been shown in either wet or dry
Speculation regarding compound disaster effects is a hot debate topic in the industry as beetle kill in the early 1990’s is now entering the grey phase where the effects of such devastation are being seen to the end result. Researchers are attempting to calculate the precursor relationship between beetle kill and catastrophic fire in those areas. In addition to beetle kill, many researchers are addressing climate change in relation to fire regimes, though its effects are currently unknown.
Some researchers suggest that fire severity and intensity will drastically increase due to the extent of damage done by beetle kill, however, according to a group of researchers from the Department of Zoology at University of Wisconsin beetle kill is not a source of change in fire regimes. An increase in fuel loads resulting from beetle kill did not produce a positive correlation effect on high fire severity in the Absaroka Wilderness region (Harvey, Donato, Romme, and Turner, 2013, p. 2475). Harvey et al instead claim the primary effect beetle kill is a decline in post-fire regeneration (Douglas-fir) where the nearest live tree is more than 150m from beetle kill in low …show more content…
The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) operating on a decadal scale and the El Nino/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) affects annually are measured against the Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) and compared with fires records between 1700 AD and into the 20th century (Hessl, McKenzie, and Schellhaas, 2004, p. 425). While major fire years correlating with La Nina years in the Southwest, no tests have been conducted in the PNW for similar correlations and the Pacific Northwest operates on an opposite spectrum to the Southwest. No consistent association between fire years and El Nico have been shown in either wet or dry