Arctic Sea Ice Effect

Arctic amplification is expected to cause arctic warming through the year 2100. This warming corresponds to a trend of decreasing in sea ice area and extent through the end of the century. Despite this anticipated trend, inter-annual variability in arctic sea ice extent remains relatively unpredictable. The variables affecting sea ice growth include, but are not limited to, large-scale atmospheric circulation, local meteorology, and dynamical surface fluxes, thus the forcing on arctic sea ice is complex issue. This study takes a closer look at the effect of wintertime downwelling longwave radiation on summer sea ice concentration, specifically through anomalous cloud forcing. Cloud forcing is a variable dependent on both the phase and thickness of clouds, and the distinct seasonal variations present in the Arctic result in a large variance in cloud forcing on both monthly and yearly timescales. The high variability of arctic clouds and their radiative effects suggest a quicker …show more content…
Throughout the timeseries, longwave cloud forcing anomaly over the Beaufort maintains a strong inverse relationship with September ice concentration anomaly. The decade of 2003-2013 relates consistent anomalously positive cloud forcing with unprecedented anomalously negative ice concentrations at the end of the summer. Perpetual cloud forcing inhibiting winter refreezing over the Beaufort may have begun a feedback that kept concentrations from returning to their standard wintertime levels, leading to decreasing summertime totals each year. The reversal of this trend begins in 2013, near the change of sign in the anomalous cloud forcing, further suggesting that clouds have a role in moderating inter-annual variability in sea ice