In Ileana Llorens’ article, “Full Moon Leads To More Babies? Hospital’s Possible Explanation For Weekend Baby Boom In Sacramento” she reports on the miraculous birth of 45 newborns during a 48 hour period. Many doctors at the hospital jokingly claimed this miracle to be a result of the full moon that occurred. To explain this phenomenon Llorens states, “The theory of the lunar effect on births is based off the gave that the moon’s gravitational pull causes high tides. Since the human body is made up of 80% percent water, the pull is believed to speed along the childbirth process…” To provide a counterargument to her claim, Lloren cites the results of the study done by Dr. Arliss and her team at Mountain Area Health Education Center. Despite
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Lloren sums up the findings of the study in one sentence stating, “No significant differences in the frequency of births across the eight stages of the moon.” However, Arliss and her team didn’t simply investigate the correlation between a full moon and the number of births but the number of complications as well. The researchers conducted extensive research differentiating the various types of births and complications to analyze each and find patterns within each category. However, the p-value for each category of births was .90 or greater, indicating that statistically there was no significant difference and we accept the null hypothesis, which states the phase of the moon has no impact on the number of births. Similarly, the p-values for the various categories of birth complications were .19 or greater, indicating no statistically significant difference. Additionally, the standard derivation values were quite large, suggesting the error bars would most likely overlap between the different phases of the moon. Lloren deliberately summarizes their findings in two sentences to aid in her ability to completely reject the statistical evidence presented in their research, supporting her own misguided …show more content…
In fact, in both the study done by Arliss and the Discover Health article they discuss how one’s cognitive bias makes you an unreliable source. Specifically, the Discover Health article states, “Cognitive bias is a psychological phenomenon in which people absorb all evidence that supports their belief and ignore all evidence to the contrary.” An example of this would be a doctor who notices that he is especially busy during a full moon but doesn’t recognize every time he is equally busy and it’s not a full moon. If even the doctors and nurses Lloren quote in her article are not credible, then nothing stands to support her
Lloren sums up the findings of the study in one sentence stating, “No significant differences in the frequency of births across the eight stages of the moon.” However, Arliss and her team didn’t simply investigate the correlation between a full moon and the number of births but the number of complications as well. The researchers conducted extensive research differentiating the various types of births and complications to analyze each and find patterns within each category. However, the p-value for each category of births was .90 or greater, indicating that statistically there was no significant difference and we accept the null hypothesis, which states the phase of the moon has no impact on the number of births. Similarly, the p-values for the various categories of birth complications were .19 or greater, indicating no statistically significant difference. Additionally, the standard derivation values were quite large, suggesting the error bars would most likely overlap between the different phases of the moon. Lloren deliberately summarizes their findings in two sentences to aid in her ability to completely reject the statistical evidence presented in their research, supporting her own misguided …show more content…
In fact, in both the study done by Arliss and the Discover Health article they discuss how one’s cognitive bias makes you an unreliable source. Specifically, the Discover Health article states, “Cognitive bias is a psychological phenomenon in which people absorb all evidence that supports their belief and ignore all evidence to the contrary.” An example of this would be a doctor who notices that he is especially busy during a full moon but doesn’t recognize every time he is equally busy and it’s not a full moon. If even the doctors and nurses Lloren quote in her article are not credible, then nothing stands to support her