Judgment Under Uncertainty Analysis

1634 Words 7 Pages
A lot of people think that when they make judgments and decisions that they act objectively, rationally, logically and are capable of taking in all the information they are presented with and evaluating it. However, the judgments and decisions that people make are tainted with errors and swayed in large part by a huge range of biases. In their book “Judgment under Uncertainty”, psychologists Daniel Kahneman, Paul Slovic and Amos Tversky published their findings on cognitive bias in which they define cognitive bias as the disposition that people have of making decisions or taking actions in an illogical manner. Some biases may relate to memory and some biases may have to do more with attention. For example, the way an individual remembers a …show more content…
Cognitive biases are usually the result of simplifying the information to process it. It is the gap between how people should reason and how people actually reason. Rules of thumb help us make sense of the world and also help us produce decisions quickly, however, they can also lead people to make bad decisions and poor judgments. If simplifying the information we process when making a judgment or decision can lead to bad decisions or poor judgments why do we do it? If we do not simplify the information around us when making a decision we will become overwhelmed and it will actually slow down the decision making process and at the same time make the process more difficult. Cognitive biases may be caused when people use mental shortcuts called heuristics to make decisions and act quickly. Although, sometimes this can lead to errors they can also be surprisingly accurate. Biases are not necessarily all bad because they serve an adaptive purpose and allow people to act quickly. For example, if you are walking down a dark alley and you see a shadow following you, a cognitive bias may cause you to think the shadow might be a mugger and you will leave the area as fast as possible. The dark shadow may have been nothing more than a flag waving in the breeze but relying on mental shortcuts can help you quickly escape dangerous situations where you need to make speedy …show more content…
One example is the stereotype that the typical serial killer is a white male in his mid-to-late twenties. According to the Serial Killer Information center, which was started by Dr. Mike Aamodt, less than 12.5% of killers in the U.S. fit that profile (Aamodt, 2016). Another example is the stereotype that all Asians are geniuses (Markman, 2016). The stereotype that all Asians are geniuses is a positive stereotype so that must be a good stereotype, right? Not exactly. We have all heard of negative stereotypes and how they negatively affect people but positive stereotypes can have a negative effect as well. The “all Asians are geniuses” stereotype sets a very high bar and puts immense pressure on these individuals. Not only that but it changes the way teachers interact with these students. If teachers assume a student is smart just because of their racial identity they may check up on them less often and offer less guidance. This can lead to self-esteem issues if they are constantly reminded that they should be really good at something that they find challenging. These type of stereotypes also lead to the person feeling depersonalized. Stereotypes of all kinds remove individuality and lump an individual into a

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