Within the US, local and state law enforcement and the Federal Bureau of Investigation (FBI) are in the best position to make significant intelligence collection contributions. Cordner and Scarborough contend that local and state law enforcement are the “eyes and ears throughout the country” (Cordner & Scarborough, 2010, p. 112). As the emerging trend of locally entrenched, radical extremists continues, local and state police have developed a heightened situational awareness for terrorism indicators. Certain crimes can be precursors in preparation for an operational attack and local police are in the best position to determine whether the crimes, and those who perpetrated them, have a nexus to national security. For example:
Fox news reported …show more content…
In a 2009 tradecraft primer put out by the US Government, it reveals that alternative futures analysis explores multiple ways a situation can develop when there is high uncertainty and is most useful when the situation is too complex to trust a single outcome (US GOV, 2009). This scenario falls under the imaginative thinking category and best describes the current situation surrounding al Shabaab. Even though this method would form the foundation of the analysis, that does not preclude aspects of the other techniques from being incorporated. For instance, brainstorming and a key assumptions check at the outset of the process would reduce biases and generate ideas. A red cell analysis would be beneficial for domestic incidents, while analysis of competing hypothesis would be better suited for the overseas component. Defeating al Shabaab domestically will only be accomplished when they are defeated overseas, so a comprehensive analysis and strategy is …show more content…
Intelligence officials should concentrate their efforts on HUMINT and OSINT while still integrating other intelligence collection disciplines to support their programs. Examples like the Sullivan case and the numerous Minneapolis instances, show that the combined efforts of local law enforcement and the FBI are achieving good results here in the US, while the CIA’s base in Mogadishu is situated in the midst of al Shabaab’s stronghold and should deliver good intelligence. Although all of the intelligence analysis techniques have their own advantages and disadvantages, an alternative future analysis strategy is the best approach for al Shabaab because of the groups volatility. Attacking al Shabaab with a layered intelligence collection and analysis methodology that includes local, state, and federal agencies will produce the best actionable intelligence
Fox news reported …show more content…
In a 2009 tradecraft primer put out by the US Government, it reveals that alternative futures analysis explores multiple ways a situation can develop when there is high uncertainty and is most useful when the situation is too complex to trust a single outcome (US GOV, 2009). This scenario falls under the imaginative thinking category and best describes the current situation surrounding al Shabaab. Even though this method would form the foundation of the analysis, that does not preclude aspects of the other techniques from being incorporated. For instance, brainstorming and a key assumptions check at the outset of the process would reduce biases and generate ideas. A red cell analysis would be beneficial for domestic incidents, while analysis of competing hypothesis would be better suited for the overseas component. Defeating al Shabaab domestically will only be accomplished when they are defeated overseas, so a comprehensive analysis and strategy is …show more content…
Intelligence officials should concentrate their efforts on HUMINT and OSINT while still integrating other intelligence collection disciplines to support their programs. Examples like the Sullivan case and the numerous Minneapolis instances, show that the combined efforts of local law enforcement and the FBI are achieving good results here in the US, while the CIA’s base in Mogadishu is situated in the midst of al Shabaab’s stronghold and should deliver good intelligence. Although all of the intelligence analysis techniques have their own advantages and disadvantages, an alternative future analysis strategy is the best approach for al Shabaab because of the groups volatility. Attacking al Shabaab with a layered intelligence collection and analysis methodology that includes local, state, and federal agencies will produce the best actionable intelligence