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50 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
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Persistence forcasting
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most valuable in short term
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steady state/ trend forecasting
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employed mostly in the winter. How a front moves from Colorado can give us an idea of when to expect it. BUT the speed may go up or down.
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Analogue forecasting
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most useful in comparing present weather sys. with hist. sys. BUT a weather sys. diff. thus some inaccuracies occur.
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Ensemble Forecasting
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NWP(only) compares multiple outputs and looks for convergent plots.
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Climatology forecasting
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based off of the climate
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Probability forecasting
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forecaster's certainty x areal coverage expected
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pieces of the puzzle
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geo. polar.
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ingredients for TSTORM
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Atmos. Inst.
Moisture Atmos. lift |
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Stages TSTORMS
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Cumulus
Mature Dissipating |
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Climatology TSTORMS
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2k TSTORMS world wide at any given moment
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% of TSTORMS Severe?
% of TSTORMS Non-Severe? |
<5% Severe
>95% Non-Severe |
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Hail size for severe?
Wind speed? |
over an inch
58+ mph |
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TSTORMS NS Structure?
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1 to 1 1/2 hours
updraft-->downdraft-->suicide vertical cloud towers caused by weak upper air wind |
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TSTORMS NS Hazards?
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Lighting
hail size < 1 inch <58mph weak Tornadoes and Brief heavy rain. |
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Formations Sev. TSTORMS?
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Boundaries include Dry Lines and Cold fronts
cP/mP/mT/cT |
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Structure Sev. TSTORMS?
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Lifetime:last a long time
Strong upper wind causes spread of updraft tilted tower |
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Sev. TSTORM Hazards?
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Heavy rain
Hail > 1 inch More significant Tornadoes |
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Supercells
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Black Mamba
Most Severe Often Causes wind and Hail Damage Really, really tilted Lots of Shear and Draft! |
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Mesoscale Convective Complexes
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up to 1000 x larger than individual air-mass thunderstorm
could cover an entire state organized group of TSTORMS |
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Squall lines
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line of TSTORMS
watch out for breaks and tail end charlie competition of moisture |
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Mesocyclones
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Rotating air column on the south side of the storm
5-10km across rotating motion within cloud--can lead to tornado or funnel cloud |
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Derechos
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Direct/Straight paths
Divergent Damage (opposite tornadoes) |
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Downbursts
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Divergent wind patterns/more common than tornadoes
Micro- < 2.5 miles wide (smaller but deadlier) -Wet and Dry Downbursts Macro- > 2.5 miles wide |
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Lightning formation
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separation of charges because of moisture within the cloud
pos neg pos |
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Lightning fun facts?
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about the diameter of a pencil
100/s worldwide main killer 100/yr in U.S. 5x sun temp. |
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Lightning Types?
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Cloud to Ground (20%) and most dangerous
Cloud to Water Cloud to Air Cloud to Cloud Intracloud most common (60%) |
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Hail damage and size relationship
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size = more velocity
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Flash Floods
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one of the top weather killers in U.S. because most people under estimate them.
South Central Texas=Flash Flood capital of the world. -limestone layers -urbanization -hilly nature (water rolls off) |
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Summer Heat
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#1 Killer
evaporative cooling - dependent on environment's moisture |
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Hail reporting.
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Always remember: hail diameter should be reported to NWS in inch size diameter.
Quarter size/ 1" is the cut off btw Non-Severe and Severe |
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TORNADOES Definition?
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rapidly rotating column of air from cumulonimbus cloud that touches the ground. Counter clockwise in the Northern Hemisphere. (Corriolis)
if it doesn't touch then its "funnel cloud". |
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TORNADOES ingredients?
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mT air
moisture unstable strong uplift temp. inversion |
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TORNADOES Development?
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Wind shear aloft
-Veering-->horizontal roll Strong updraft -stretches it vertically -air rushes rapidly into vortex(roll/tube) Circulation hits the ground = TORNADO |
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TORNADOES Climatology?
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1% > T-storms cause tornadoes
-1% of Tornadoes are violent World wide (North America = most) -North America (S and Central U.S. plains = most) --Direction SW --> NE except Texas moves clockwise from E --> NE Most freq btw 3-7pm/mos |
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Weak Tornadoes
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80% of all tornadoes. LT < 10min
EF0 Light damage 65-85mph EF1 Moderate damage 85-110 mph |
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Strong Tornadoes
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19% of all tornadoes. LT 20+min
EF2 Considerable damage 111-135mph EF3 Severe damage 136-165 mph car fly |
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Violent Tornadoes
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<1% of all tornadoes. LT 60+min
EF4 Devastating damage 166-200mph EF5 Incredible damage 201-318 mph car fly long time up to mile |
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Fujita Scale Fun Facts
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used to be 0-12
then engineers got involved and damage shouldn't be based on housing structure |
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Tropical Cyclones
Ingredients? |
forms over tropical/equatorial oceans
Surface temp 81+ degrees at sub. depths Weak upper level winds -high pressure upper/ low pressure lower --more likely in La Nina yrs |
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Stages of Tropical Cyclones
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Depression->Tropical Storm(gets name)->Hurricanes(75+mph) aka Typhoon, Tropical Cyclone
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Tropical Cyclone Climatology?
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Never cross equator
Develop 30 deg < N/S of Eq. < 10 deg. Most freq. W. Pac. Basin (Japan) Heat machines DO NOT form SE Pac and S Atl. |
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TC seasons?
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Atlantic- Jun thru Nov
Pacific- May 15 thru Nov |
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Saffir Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale
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1 thru 5 Equivalent to F-scale
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A
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Tropical
ALL mos. = AVG Temp. 64+ deg. |
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B
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Arid/Semi-Arid
Potential EVAPORATION > PRECIPITATION (Moisture Deficit) |
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C
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SubTropical
27 deg. < AVG Temp. of Coldest month of the year < 64 deg. Austin = CFA/Humid SubTropical |
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D
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Temperate
Avg. Temp of the Coldest month of the year < 27 deg. Avg. Temp. of the Warmest month > 50 deg. Most of Canada |
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E
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Polar
Avg. Temp. of the Warmest month < 50 deg. |
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ET?
EF? |
Tundra Climate
32 deg. < Avg. Temp. of the Warmest month < 50 deg. Ice Cap Climate Avg. Temp. of the Warmest month < 32 deg. |
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H
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Highland/MTS
Very complex and tight knit Controlling Factors: Elevation and Exposure |
