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181 Cards in this Set

  • Front
  • Back
Uncertainty
Involves having two potential outcomes for an event or situation.
Risk
The uncertainty about a future outcome, particularly the consequences of a negative outcome, which can be behavioral, psychological, or financial
Role of Risk in Decision making
Risk permeates the spectrum of decision making from goals of value maximization to goals of insolvency minimization.

Ignoring risk represents mismanagement of risk in the opportunity-seeking context.

Managing risks associated with the context of minimization losses has succeeded more than managing risks when we use an objective of value maximization
Risk Management
The essence of it is to manage the negative consequences of the uncertain future.
Risk Averse
Someone who shies away from risk.

Economists and risk management professionals consider most people to be risk averse.
Risk Seeker
Will enter into an endeavor as long as a positive long run return on the money is possible, however unlikely.
Risk Neutral
One's risk preference lies between the extremes of risk averse and risk seeking.

Most widely held or public companies are risk neutral.
Diversification
Take actions that are seemingly not related or have opposite effects

To invest in as many possible unrelated products or entities such that the impact of any one event decreases the overall risk.
Anticipated Variability
An expected deviation of an occurrence from what they expect - also known as anticipated variability.
Exposure
The enterprise, property, person or activity facing a potential loss
Categories of Exposure
1) Risks of Nature
2) Risks related to human nature(theft,embezzlement,fraud)
3) Man-made risks
4) Risks associated with data and knowledge
5) Risks associated with the legal system (liability)
6) Risks related to large systems: governments, armies, large business organizations, political groups
7) Intellectual Property
Pure Risk
Features some chance of loss and no chance of gain (ex fire risk, flood risk, etc)
Speculative risks
Feature a chance to either gain or lose (ex investment risk, reputational risk, strategic risk)
Hedging
Activities that are taken to reduce or eliminate risks
Securitization
Packaging and transferring the insurance risks to the capital markets through the issuance of a financial security.
Risk retention
When a firm retains its risk, self-insuring against adverse contingencies out of its own cash flows.
Enterprise risk management (ERM)
the simultaneous consideration of all risks and the management of risks in an enterprise-wide (and risk-wide) context.
Consequential or indirect losses
nonphysical losses such as loss of business (ex a firm losing clients because of street closure)
Property loss exposures
Associated both with real property (buildings or automobiles) and the contents of a building

Due to accidents or catastrophes such as floods or hurricanes
Liability Loss
Caused by a third party who is considered at fault.

Responsible party may become legally obligated to pay for injury to persons or damage to property.
Catastrophic risk
Concentration of strong, positively correlated risk exposures.
Non-accidental risk
A loss that is catastrophic and includes a large number of exposures in a single location is considered a nonaccidental risk
Fundamental risk or systematic risk
Pervasive and affect the whole economy, as opposed to accidental risk for an individual

Systematic and nondiversifiable
Diversifiable risks
Risks whose adverse consequences can be mitigated simply by having a well-diversified portfolio of risk exposures
Idiosyncratic
Views as being amenable to having their financial consequences reduced or eliminated by holding a well-diversified
E-risk
Generated by the extensive use of computers, e-commerce and the internet
Perils
"The cause of loss"
Natural perils
Causes of losses over which people have little control
Human perils
Causes of losses that lie within individual's control
Economic perils
Causes of losses resulting from the state of the economy
Noninsurable perils
May be considered catastrophic to an insurer
Hazards
Conditions that increase the cause of loss
Frequency
The number of losses during a specified period
Severity
The average dollar value of a loss per claim
Physical hazards
Tangible environmental conditions that affect the frequency and/or severity of loss (ex slippery roads, old wiring)
Intangible Hazards
Attitudes and nonphysical cultural conditions can affect loss probabilities and severities of loss
Moral Hazard
Hazards that involve behavior that can be construed as negligence bordering on criminal
Morale Hazards
Hazards that involve attitudes of carelessness and lack of concern
Fair value
The numerical average of the experience of all possible outcomes; also called the "expected value."
Expected value
=(probability) x (respective gain or loss)
Range
Distance between the highest possible outcome value to the lowest in a distribution
Variance
calculated by individually squaring the deviation of each possible outcome from the expected value, and multiplying this result by its respective probability or likelihood of occurring, and then summing up the resulting products.
Standard deviation
=square root of variance
Coeffecient of variation
standard deviation of a distribution divided by its mean
Semivariance
average square deviation of values in a distribution
Value at Risk (VaR)
defines as the worst-case scenario dollar value loss.
CAPM's Beta Measure of Nondiversifiable Portfolio Risk
provides a measure of how the return on an asset systematically varies with the variations in the market, and consequently a measure of systematic risk
rf
risk free return
β
Beta; indicates how the stock moves with the general market
Rm – rf
Indicates the current state of the market
ε
random factor
βA*(Rm - rf )
Risk premium
The variation of asset returns with respect to the market returns is assumed to be linear and so the general framework is expressed as
RA= rf + βA*(Rm - rf ) + ε
Risk Management
Includes the process of identifying, assessing, measuring, and evaluating alternative ways to mitigate risks
Risk map
A visual tool that profiles all the risks
Self-insuring
Retaining risks within the firm and paying claims in-house requires additional personnel within the risk management function
Functions of CRO or financial risk managers
1) Integrating the firm's silos, or separate risks, into a holistic framework
2) Insurance and loss control
3) Using specialized tools to keep cash flow in-house
4) Addressing the entire risk map in the realm of nonpure risks
5) Creating the risk management guideline for the firm
Risk Management Process
1) Identifying risks
2) Assessing them
3) Forecasting future frequency and severity of losses
4) Mitigating risks
5) Finding risk mitigation solutions
6) Creating plans
7) Conducting cost-benefit analyses
8) Implementing programs for loss control and insurance
Risk Profiling
Evaluates all the risks of the organizations and measures the frequency and severity of each risk
Risk Mapping
displays the results of risk profiling graphically, involves charting entire spectrums of risk, not individual risk silos from each seperate business unit

Frequency is on the X axis, Severity on the Y
Four basic risk categories
Hazard Risks, Financial Risks, Business Risks, and Operational Risks
Hazard Risks
Natural and man-made risks

Found in the low frequency/high-severity quadrant
Financial Risks
Arise from changing market conditions involving prices, volatility, liquidity, credit markets, currency exchange, and general market conditions.
Business Risks
Like reputation risk

Found in the high frequency/high severity quadrant
Operational Risks
Those relating to the ongoing day to day business activities of the organization

Found in the low-frequency/low-severity quadrant
Risk Management Matrix
Provides alternative financial action to undertake for each frequency/severity combination
Forecasting
Involves projecting the frequency and severity of losses into the future based on current data and statistical assumptions
Cash Flow Analysis
The analysis that looks at the amount of cash that will be saved and brings it into today's present value
Risk Management Information Systems
Appropriate data systems to allow them to quantify the organization's loss history

Help to slice and dice the data for further assessment

Maximize a firm's risk/reward tradeoff
Data Warehousing
A system of housing large sets of data for strategic analysis and operations

Risk data allows decision makers to evaluate multiple dimensions of risk as well as overall risk.
Traditional Risk Management Matrix
Pure Risk Solution
Low Frequency High Frequency
of Losses of Losses

Low Severity Retention Retention with
(Self Insurance) loss control- risk
reduction

High Transfer- AVOIDANCE
Severity Insurance
Transfer of risk
Displacement of risk to a third, unrelated party to an insurance company

Paying someone else to bear some or all of the risk of certain financial losses that cannot be avoided, assumed, or reduced to acceptable levels
Methods of risk transfer
Formation of a corporation with limited liability for its stockholders
Contractual arrangements, including insurance
Contractual Agreements
Some risks are transferred by a guarantee included i the contract of sale (ex. warranty provided to a car buyer,leases and rental agreements, hold-harmless clauses, and surety bonds)

Insurance is a common form of planned risk transfer
Low Frequency and Low Severity
Retention of risk through self insurance
Risk Retention Group
Provides risk management and retention to a few players in the same industry who are too small to act on their own
High Frequency and Low Severity
Shows retention with loss control

If frequency is significant, risk managers may find efforts to prevent losses useful
Loss Prevention
Seek to reduce the probability of a loss occurring
Loss Reduction
Efforts to lessen loss severity
High Frequency and High Severity
Avoidance
Objectives of Risk Mapping
1) To aid in the identification of risks and their interrelations
2) To provide a mechanism to see clearly what risk management strategy would be the best to undertake
3) To compare and evaluate the firm’s current risk handling and to aid in selecting appropriate strategies
4) To show the leftover risks after all risk mitigation strategies are put in place
5) To easily communicate risk management strategy to both management and employees
Risk Management Process
Continuous requiring constant monitoring of the program to ensure that:
- the decisions implemented were correct and have been implemented appropriately
- the underlying problems have not changed
Enterprise Risk Management (ERM)
Headed by the CRO and handles the risk management decision with specific coordinators
Six Sigma
A business strategy widely adopted by many corporations to improves processes and efficiency, within which firms have embedded ERM
ERM includes:
Every aspect of risk within the corporation, including labor negotiation risks, innovation risks, ignoring market condition risks, managing self-interest and greed risks, and so forth.
Stockholders' Wealth
Value of equity held by the owners of a company plus income in the form of dividends
Market Value
Price of the stock times the number of shares outstanding
Efficient-markets hypothesis
Actual market value includes all the elements and information available to the market
Corporate Governance
Satisfying the needs of all the stakeholders
Brand Equity (Franchise Value)
The value created by a company with a good reputation and good products
Sustainability
The capacity to maintain a certain process or state
Balance Sheet
Provides a snapshot of a firm's assets and liabilities
Capital Structure
How a firm decides to finance large purchases. Debt vs equity from investors.
Covenants
Details of the contracts and promises between the debt contract parties
Financial Risk Managers
Managers responsible for managing the risk of the investments and assets of a firm
Underwriting
The process of evaluating risks, selecting which risks to accept, identifying potential adverse selection, and reserving liabilities
Reserving Liabilities
Calculation of the amount that the insurer needs to set aside to pay future claims
Asset Allocation
The mix of assets held by an insurer, to achieve the best rate of return on the assets entrusted to the insurer by the policyholder seeking the security.
Asset-liabilities Matching
Allocation of assets that is necessary to meet the timing of the claims obligations
Actuaries
Individuals who specialize in forecasting the losses and developing the losses' potential future impact on the insurers
Mortality Tables
Indicate the percent of expected deaths for each age group
Life Expectancy
Shows the length of life expected for people born in each year
Due Diligence
Examines every action and items in the financial statement of companies to ensure the data reflect true value
Derivatives
The financial Securities whose value is derived from another underlying asset.
Forwards
Agreement that obligates the owner of the instrument to buy or sell an asset for a specified price at a specified time in the future

Traded in the over the counter market

Contract characteristics can be tailored to meet specific consumer needs
Basis
The amount of money above and beyond the futures price
Futures
Agreements that obligate the owner of the instrument to buy or sell an asset for a specified price at a specified time in the future

Trade on an exchange with standardized contract specifications
Swaps
Agreements to exchange or transfer expected variable-price purchases of a commodity or foreign exchange contract for a fixed contractual rpice today
Options
Agreements that give the right (but not the obligation) to buy or sell an underlying asset at a specified price at a specified time in the future
Call Option
Grants the right to buy at the strike price
Put Option
Grants the right to sell at the strike price
Securitization
Packaging and transferring the insurance risks to the capital markets through the issuance of a financial security
Counterparty risk
allows to reduce credit risk exposure
Insurance-Linked Securities (ISL)
Securitization instruments including catastrophe bonds, catastrophe equity puts (Cat-E-Puts), and contingent surplus notes, collaterialized debt obligations (CDOs), weather derivatives
Catastrophe Bonds (CAT bonds)
seek to protect the insurance industry from catastrophic events
Catastrophe Equity Puts (Cat-E-Puts)
Gives an insurer the option to sell equity at predetermined prices, contingent upon the catastrophic event
Contingent Surplus Notes
Options to borrow money in case of a specific event
Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs)
Securities backed by a pool of diversified assets
Weather derivatives
Derivative contracts that pay based on weather-related events
Insurance
A social device in which a group of individuals transfer risk to another party such that the third party combines or pools all the risk exposures together
Law of Large Numbers
As a sample of observations increases in size, the relative variation about the mean declines
Insureds
Individuals who transfer risk to a third-party
Insurer
Third party that accepts the risks transferred by the insured
How Insurance Works
o Transfer of risk from an individual or entity (insured) to a third party (insurer);
o Pooling of all the risk exposures together to compute potential future losses with some level of accuracy by the third party (insurer); using various forecasting techniques, depending on the distribution of losses;
o Overall reduction of risk in society due to pooling of the risk;
o Pooling of similar risk exposures together to compute their own risk of missing the prediction by the insurers, and
o Discriminating via underwriting—the process of evaluating a risk and classifying it with similar risks by insurers.
Insurer assumes risk
Promises to pay whatever loss may occur as long as it fits the description given in the policy and is not larger than the amount of insurance sold
Finite risk programs
financial methods that can be construed as financing risk assumptions.
Risk Pooling (Loss Sharing)
Premium received by the insurer is used to compensate those who incur covered losses
Adverse Selection
the phenomena of selecting an insurer that charges lower rates for specific risk exposure
Mass
Implies large numbers of exposure units being involved.
Similarity
The loss exposures to be insured must have similarities
Accidental losses
Insurable losses must be accidental or fortuitous-matter of chance.
Small Possibility of Catastrophe
Higher probabilities can make it uninsurable
Definite Losses
Losses must be definite in time, place, and amount for two reasons: to determine the coverage and accumulate data for future predictions
Determinable Probability Distribution
For an exposure to loss to be insurable the expected loss be calculable
Economic Feasability
The size of the loss can't be too big and the cost of insurance must be small compared to the potential loss
Personal Insurance
Insurance that is purchased by individuals and families for their risk needs (ex. life, health, disability, auto, homeowner, and long term care)
Group Insurance
Insurance provided by the employer for the benefit of employees (life, disability, health, and pension plans)
Commercial Insurance
Property/casualty insurance for businesses and other organizatons
Life/Health Insurance
Covers exposures to the perils of death, medial expenses, disability, and old age
Property/casualty insurance
Covers property exposures such as direct and indirect losses of property caused by perils (fire, windstorm, theft, and includes insurance to cover the possibility of being held legally liable to pay damages to another person)
Private or Government Insurance
Provide the bulk of property/casualty insurance

Government provides more personal insurance than the private sector
Voluntary or Involuntary Insurance
Some are purchased voluntarily and others are required.
Stock Insurers
Organized in the same way as other privately owned corporations created for making a profit and maximizing the value of organization for the benefit of the owners.
Mutual Insurers
owned and controlled in theory if not in practice by policyowners, have no stockholders and issue no capital stocks.

Profits are shared with owners as policyowners' dividends
Lloyd's of London
Oldest insurance organization in existence, supervised by two governing committees- one for market management and another for regulation of financial matters

Individual members of Lloyd's called Names accept exotic insurance risks by providing capital to an underwriting syndicate.

Each syndicate is made up of many Names and accepts risks through one or more brokers
Responsibilities of Names
o Make deposits of capital with the governing committee
o Put premiums into a trust fund
o Make additional contributions, in case of losses
o Assume part of one large exposure
o Reinsure each other to provide more risk sharing; currently ceased
Captive Insurance Company
Provides insurance coverage to its parent company and other affiliated organizations.
Risk Retention Group
Provides risk management and retention to a few players in the same industry who are too small to act on their own.
Government Risk Pools
Formed for governmental entities to provide group self-insurance coverage
Agents
Legally represent the company
Broker
Represents the buyer and in half of the states also represents the insurer
Producer
Another name for both agents and brokers
Life/Health insurance
Sold through agents, brokers, or producers
General Agent
an independent businessperson rather than an employee of the insurance company is authorized by contract with the insurer to sell insurance in a specified territory and recruits and trains subagents or agents or special agent
Personal Producing General Agent
Sell for one or more insurers, often with a higher-than-normal agent’s commission and seldom hires other agents.
Branch Manager
Who is a company employee compensated by a combination of salary, bonus, and commissions related to the productivity of the office, employs and trains agents with the consent of the company.
Owns the X-Date
An independent agent owns the x-date; that is, he or she has the right to contact the customer when a policy is due for renewal.
Redlining
Occurs when an insurer designates a geographical area in which it chooses not to provide insurance, or to provide it only at substantially higher prices.
Service
The ultimate indicator on which the quality of the product provided by insurance depends
Engineering and Loss Control
Methods of prevention and reduction of loss whenever the efforts required are economically feasible.
Actuarial Analysis
A highly specialized mathematic analysis that deals with the financial and risk aspects of insurance, takes past losses and projects them into the future to determine the reserves an insurer needs to keep and the rates to charge
Actuary
Determines the proper rates and reserves, certifies financial statements, participates in product development and assists in overall management and planning
Loss Development
Calculation of how amounts paid for losses increase (or mature) over time for the purpose of future projection
Incurred losses
Both paid losses plus known but not yet paid losses
Incurred but not Reported (IBNR) Losses
Estimated losses that insureds did not claim yet but are expected to materialize in the future
Mortality Curve
Illustrates the relationship between age and the probability of death
Capital and Surplus
a highly specialized mathematic analysis that deals with the financial and risk aspects of insurance, takes past losses and projects them into the future to determine the reserves an insurer needs to keep and the rates to charge
Reinsurance
An arrangement by which an insurance company (ceding insurer) transfers all or a portion of its risk under a contract of insurance to another company (assuming reinsurer) thus seeking protection
Three types of reinsurance
Treaty, facultative, and a combination of these
Treaty
The original insurer is obligated to automatically reinsure any new underlying insurance contract that meets the terms of a prearranged treaty, and the reinsurer is obligated to accept certain responsibilities for the specified insurance
Facultative
Both the primary insurer and the reinsurer retain full decision-making powers with respect to each insurance contract;
Proportional (pro rata) reinsurance
The reinsurer assumes a prespecified percentage of both premiums and losses
Ceding Commission
A fee paid by the reinsurer to the original insurer
Nonproportional Reinsurance
Obligates the reinsurer to pay losses when they exceed a designated threshold
Excess-loss reinsurance
Requires the reinsurer to accept amounts of insurance that exceed the ceding insurer's retention limit
Aggregate Reinsurance Policy
Can be purchased for coverage against potentially catastrophic situations faced by the primary insurer
Claims Adjusting
The process of paying insureds after they sustain losses
Claim Adjuster
Represents the insurer when the policyholder presents a claim for payment
Company Adjuster
They handle larger claims
An Independent Adjuster
An employee of an adjusting firm that works for several different insurers and receives a fee for each claim handled
Claim adjuster's job
o investigating the circumstances surrounding a loss;
o determining whether the loss is covered or excluded under the terms of the contract;
o deciding how much should be paid if the loss is covered;
o paying valid claims promptly, and
o resisting invalid claims.