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181 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
Uncertainty
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Involves having two potential outcomes for an event or situation.
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Risk
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The uncertainty about a future outcome, particularly the consequences of a negative outcome, which can be behavioral, psychological, or financial
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Role of Risk in Decision making
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Risk permeates the spectrum of decision making from goals of value maximization to goals of insolvency minimization.
Ignoring risk represents mismanagement of risk in the opportunity-seeking context. Managing risks associated with the context of minimization losses has succeeded more than managing risks when we use an objective of value maximization |
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Risk Management
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The essence of it is to manage the negative consequences of the uncertain future.
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Risk Averse
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Someone who shies away from risk.
Economists and risk management professionals consider most people to be risk averse. |
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Risk Seeker
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Will enter into an endeavor as long as a positive long run return on the money is possible, however unlikely.
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Risk Neutral
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One's risk preference lies between the extremes of risk averse and risk seeking.
Most widely held or public companies are risk neutral. |
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Diversification
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Take actions that are seemingly not related or have opposite effects
To invest in as many possible unrelated products or entities such that the impact of any one event decreases the overall risk. |
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Anticipated Variability
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An expected deviation of an occurrence from what they expect - also known as anticipated variability.
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Exposure
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The enterprise, property, person or activity facing a potential loss
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Categories of Exposure
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1) Risks of Nature
2) Risks related to human nature(theft,embezzlement,fraud) 3) Man-made risks 4) Risks associated with data and knowledge 5) Risks associated with the legal system (liability) 6) Risks related to large systems: governments, armies, large business organizations, political groups 7) Intellectual Property |
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Pure Risk
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Features some chance of loss and no chance of gain (ex fire risk, flood risk, etc)
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Speculative risks
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Feature a chance to either gain or lose (ex investment risk, reputational risk, strategic risk)
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Hedging
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Activities that are taken to reduce or eliminate risks
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Securitization
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Packaging and transferring the insurance risks to the capital markets through the issuance of a financial security.
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Risk retention
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When a firm retains its risk, self-insuring against adverse contingencies out of its own cash flows.
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Enterprise risk management (ERM)
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the simultaneous consideration of all risks and the management of risks in an enterprise-wide (and risk-wide) context.
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Consequential or indirect losses
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nonphysical losses such as loss of business (ex a firm losing clients because of street closure)
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Property loss exposures
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Associated both with real property (buildings or automobiles) and the contents of a building
Due to accidents or catastrophes such as floods or hurricanes |
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Liability Loss
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Caused by a third party who is considered at fault.
Responsible party may become legally obligated to pay for injury to persons or damage to property. |
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Catastrophic risk
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Concentration of strong, positively correlated risk exposures.
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Non-accidental risk
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A loss that is catastrophic and includes a large number of exposures in a single location is considered a nonaccidental risk
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Fundamental risk or systematic risk
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Pervasive and affect the whole economy, as opposed to accidental risk for an individual
Systematic and nondiversifiable |
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Diversifiable risks
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Risks whose adverse consequences can be mitigated simply by having a well-diversified portfolio of risk exposures
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Idiosyncratic
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Views as being amenable to having their financial consequences reduced or eliminated by holding a well-diversified
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E-risk
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Generated by the extensive use of computers, e-commerce and the internet
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Perils
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"The cause of loss"
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Natural perils
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Causes of losses over which people have little control
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Human perils
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Causes of losses that lie within individual's control
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Economic perils
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Causes of losses resulting from the state of the economy
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Noninsurable perils
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May be considered catastrophic to an insurer
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Hazards
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Conditions that increase the cause of loss
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Frequency
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The number of losses during a specified period
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Severity
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The average dollar value of a loss per claim
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Physical hazards
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Tangible environmental conditions that affect the frequency and/or severity of loss (ex slippery roads, old wiring)
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Intangible Hazards
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Attitudes and nonphysical cultural conditions can affect loss probabilities and severities of loss
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Moral Hazard
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Hazards that involve behavior that can be construed as negligence bordering on criminal
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Morale Hazards
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Hazards that involve attitudes of carelessness and lack of concern
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Fair value
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The numerical average of the experience of all possible outcomes; also called the "expected value."
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Expected value
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=(probability) x (respective gain or loss)
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Range
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Distance between the highest possible outcome value to the lowest in a distribution
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Variance
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calculated by individually squaring the deviation of each possible outcome from the expected value, and multiplying this result by its respective probability or likelihood of occurring, and then summing up the resulting products.
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Standard deviation
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=square root of variance
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Coeffecient of variation
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standard deviation of a distribution divided by its mean
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Semivariance
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average square deviation of values in a distribution
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Value at Risk (VaR)
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defines as the worst-case scenario dollar value loss.
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CAPM's Beta Measure of Nondiversifiable Portfolio Risk
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provides a measure of how the return on an asset systematically varies with the variations in the market, and consequently a measure of systematic risk
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rf
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risk free return
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β
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Beta; indicates how the stock moves with the general market
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Rm – rf
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Indicates the current state of the market
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ε
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random factor
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βA*(Rm - rf )
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Risk premium
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The variation of asset returns with respect to the market returns is assumed to be linear and so the general framework is expressed as
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RA= rf + βA*(Rm - rf ) + ε
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Risk Management
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Includes the process of identifying, assessing, measuring, and evaluating alternative ways to mitigate risks
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Risk map
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A visual tool that profiles all the risks
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Self-insuring
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Retaining risks within the firm and paying claims in-house requires additional personnel within the risk management function
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Functions of CRO or financial risk managers
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1) Integrating the firm's silos, or separate risks, into a holistic framework
2) Insurance and loss control 3) Using specialized tools to keep cash flow in-house 4) Addressing the entire risk map in the realm of nonpure risks 5) Creating the risk management guideline for the firm |
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Risk Management Process
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1) Identifying risks
2) Assessing them 3) Forecasting future frequency and severity of losses 4) Mitigating risks 5) Finding risk mitigation solutions 6) Creating plans 7) Conducting cost-benefit analyses 8) Implementing programs for loss control and insurance |
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Risk Profiling
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Evaluates all the risks of the organizations and measures the frequency and severity of each risk
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Risk Mapping
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displays the results of risk profiling graphically, involves charting entire spectrums of risk, not individual risk silos from each seperate business unit
Frequency is on the X axis, Severity on the Y |
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Four basic risk categories
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Hazard Risks, Financial Risks, Business Risks, and Operational Risks
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Hazard Risks
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Natural and man-made risks
Found in the low frequency/high-severity quadrant |
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Financial Risks
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Arise from changing market conditions involving prices, volatility, liquidity, credit markets, currency exchange, and general market conditions.
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Business Risks
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Like reputation risk
Found in the high frequency/high severity quadrant |
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Operational Risks
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Those relating to the ongoing day to day business activities of the organization
Found in the low-frequency/low-severity quadrant |
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Risk Management Matrix
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Provides alternative financial action to undertake for each frequency/severity combination
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Forecasting
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Involves projecting the frequency and severity of losses into the future based on current data and statistical assumptions
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Cash Flow Analysis
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The analysis that looks at the amount of cash that will be saved and brings it into today's present value
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Risk Management Information Systems
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Appropriate data systems to allow them to quantify the organization's loss history
Help to slice and dice the data for further assessment Maximize a firm's risk/reward tradeoff |
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Data Warehousing
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A system of housing large sets of data for strategic analysis and operations
Risk data allows decision makers to evaluate multiple dimensions of risk as well as overall risk. |
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Traditional Risk Management Matrix
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Pure Risk Solution
Low Frequency High Frequency of Losses of Losses Low Severity Retention Retention with (Self Insurance) loss control- risk reduction High Transfer- AVOIDANCE Severity Insurance |
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Transfer of risk
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Displacement of risk to a third, unrelated party to an insurance company
Paying someone else to bear some or all of the risk of certain financial losses that cannot be avoided, assumed, or reduced to acceptable levels |
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Methods of risk transfer
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Formation of a corporation with limited liability for its stockholders
Contractual arrangements, including insurance |
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Contractual Agreements
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Some risks are transferred by a guarantee included i the contract of sale (ex. warranty provided to a car buyer,leases and rental agreements, hold-harmless clauses, and surety bonds)
Insurance is a common form of planned risk transfer |
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Low Frequency and Low Severity
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Retention of risk through self insurance
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Risk Retention Group
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Provides risk management and retention to a few players in the same industry who are too small to act on their own
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High Frequency and Low Severity
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Shows retention with loss control
If frequency is significant, risk managers may find efforts to prevent losses useful |
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Loss Prevention
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Seek to reduce the probability of a loss occurring
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Loss Reduction
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Efforts to lessen loss severity
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High Frequency and High Severity
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Avoidance
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Objectives of Risk Mapping
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1) To aid in the identification of risks and their interrelations
2) To provide a mechanism to see clearly what risk management strategy would be the best to undertake 3) To compare and evaluate the firm’s current risk handling and to aid in selecting appropriate strategies 4) To show the leftover risks after all risk mitigation strategies are put in place 5) To easily communicate risk management strategy to both management and employees |
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Risk Management Process
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Continuous requiring constant monitoring of the program to ensure that:
- the decisions implemented were correct and have been implemented appropriately - the underlying problems have not changed |
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Enterprise Risk Management (ERM)
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Headed by the CRO and handles the risk management decision with specific coordinators
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Six Sigma
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A business strategy widely adopted by many corporations to improves processes and efficiency, within which firms have embedded ERM
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ERM includes:
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Every aspect of risk within the corporation, including labor negotiation risks, innovation risks, ignoring market condition risks, managing self-interest and greed risks, and so forth.
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Stockholders' Wealth
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Value of equity held by the owners of a company plus income in the form of dividends
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Market Value
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Price of the stock times the number of shares outstanding
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Efficient-markets hypothesis
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Actual market value includes all the elements and information available to the market
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Corporate Governance
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Satisfying the needs of all the stakeholders
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Brand Equity (Franchise Value)
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The value created by a company with a good reputation and good products
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Sustainability
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The capacity to maintain a certain process or state
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Balance Sheet
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Provides a snapshot of a firm's assets and liabilities
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Capital Structure
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How a firm decides to finance large purchases. Debt vs equity from investors.
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Covenants
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Details of the contracts and promises between the debt contract parties
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Financial Risk Managers
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Managers responsible for managing the risk of the investments and assets of a firm
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Underwriting
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The process of evaluating risks, selecting which risks to accept, identifying potential adverse selection, and reserving liabilities
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Reserving Liabilities
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Calculation of the amount that the insurer needs to set aside to pay future claims
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Asset Allocation
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The mix of assets held by an insurer, to achieve the best rate of return on the assets entrusted to the insurer by the policyholder seeking the security.
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Asset-liabilities Matching
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Allocation of assets that is necessary to meet the timing of the claims obligations
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Actuaries
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Individuals who specialize in forecasting the losses and developing the losses' potential future impact on the insurers
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Mortality Tables
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Indicate the percent of expected deaths for each age group
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Life Expectancy
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Shows the length of life expected for people born in each year
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Due Diligence
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Examines every action and items in the financial statement of companies to ensure the data reflect true value
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Derivatives
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The financial Securities whose value is derived from another underlying asset.
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Forwards
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Agreement that obligates the owner of the instrument to buy or sell an asset for a specified price at a specified time in the future
Traded in the over the counter market Contract characteristics can be tailored to meet specific consumer needs |
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Basis
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The amount of money above and beyond the futures price
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Futures
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Agreements that obligate the owner of the instrument to buy or sell an asset for a specified price at a specified time in the future
Trade on an exchange with standardized contract specifications |
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Swaps
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Agreements to exchange or transfer expected variable-price purchases of a commodity or foreign exchange contract for a fixed contractual rpice today
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Options
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Agreements that give the right (but not the obligation) to buy or sell an underlying asset at a specified price at a specified time in the future
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Call Option
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Grants the right to buy at the strike price
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Put Option
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Grants the right to sell at the strike price
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Securitization
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Packaging and transferring the insurance risks to the capital markets through the issuance of a financial security
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Counterparty risk
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allows to reduce credit risk exposure
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Insurance-Linked Securities (ISL)
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Securitization instruments including catastrophe bonds, catastrophe equity puts (Cat-E-Puts), and contingent surplus notes, collaterialized debt obligations (CDOs), weather derivatives
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Catastrophe Bonds (CAT bonds)
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seek to protect the insurance industry from catastrophic events
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Catastrophe Equity Puts (Cat-E-Puts)
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Gives an insurer the option to sell equity at predetermined prices, contingent upon the catastrophic event
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Contingent Surplus Notes
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Options to borrow money in case of a specific event
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Collateralized Debt Obligations (CDOs)
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Securities backed by a pool of diversified assets
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Weather derivatives
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Derivative contracts that pay based on weather-related events
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Insurance
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A social device in which a group of individuals transfer risk to another party such that the third party combines or pools all the risk exposures together
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Law of Large Numbers
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As a sample of observations increases in size, the relative variation about the mean declines
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Insureds
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Individuals who transfer risk to a third-party
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Insurer
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Third party that accepts the risks transferred by the insured
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How Insurance Works
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o Transfer of risk from an individual or entity (insured) to a third party (insurer);
o Pooling of all the risk exposures together to compute potential future losses with some level of accuracy by the third party (insurer); using various forecasting techniques, depending on the distribution of losses; o Overall reduction of risk in society due to pooling of the risk; o Pooling of similar risk exposures together to compute their own risk of missing the prediction by the insurers, and o Discriminating via underwriting—the process of evaluating a risk and classifying it with similar risks by insurers. |
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Insurer assumes risk
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Promises to pay whatever loss may occur as long as it fits the description given in the policy and is not larger than the amount of insurance sold
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Finite risk programs
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financial methods that can be construed as financing risk assumptions.
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Risk Pooling (Loss Sharing)
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Premium received by the insurer is used to compensate those who incur covered losses
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Adverse Selection
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the phenomena of selecting an insurer that charges lower rates for specific risk exposure
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Mass
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Implies large numbers of exposure units being involved.
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Similarity
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The loss exposures to be insured must have similarities
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Accidental losses
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Insurable losses must be accidental or fortuitous-matter of chance.
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Small Possibility of Catastrophe
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Higher probabilities can make it uninsurable
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Definite Losses
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Losses must be definite in time, place, and amount for two reasons: to determine the coverage and accumulate data for future predictions
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Determinable Probability Distribution
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For an exposure to loss to be insurable the expected loss be calculable
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Economic Feasability
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The size of the loss can't be too big and the cost of insurance must be small compared to the potential loss
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Personal Insurance
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Insurance that is purchased by individuals and families for their risk needs (ex. life, health, disability, auto, homeowner, and long term care)
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Group Insurance
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Insurance provided by the employer for the benefit of employees (life, disability, health, and pension plans)
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Commercial Insurance
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Property/casualty insurance for businesses and other organizatons
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Life/Health Insurance
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Covers exposures to the perils of death, medial expenses, disability, and old age
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Property/casualty insurance
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Covers property exposures such as direct and indirect losses of property caused by perils (fire, windstorm, theft, and includes insurance to cover the possibility of being held legally liable to pay damages to another person)
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Private or Government Insurance
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Provide the bulk of property/casualty insurance
Government provides more personal insurance than the private sector |
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Voluntary or Involuntary Insurance
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Some are purchased voluntarily and others are required.
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Stock Insurers
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Organized in the same way as other privately owned corporations created for making a profit and maximizing the value of organization for the benefit of the owners.
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Mutual Insurers
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owned and controlled in theory if not in practice by policyowners, have no stockholders and issue no capital stocks.
Profits are shared with owners as policyowners' dividends |
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Lloyd's of London
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Oldest insurance organization in existence, supervised by two governing committees- one for market management and another for regulation of financial matters
Individual members of Lloyd's called Names accept exotic insurance risks by providing capital to an underwriting syndicate. Each syndicate is made up of many Names and accepts risks through one or more brokers |
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Responsibilities of Names
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o Make deposits of capital with the governing committee
o Put premiums into a trust fund o Make additional contributions, in case of losses o Assume part of one large exposure o Reinsure each other to provide more risk sharing; currently ceased |
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Captive Insurance Company
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Provides insurance coverage to its parent company and other affiliated organizations.
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Risk Retention Group
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Provides risk management and retention to a few players in the same industry who are too small to act on their own.
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Government Risk Pools
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Formed for governmental entities to provide group self-insurance coverage
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Agents
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Legally represent the company
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Broker
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Represents the buyer and in half of the states also represents the insurer
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Producer
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Another name for both agents and brokers
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Life/Health insurance
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Sold through agents, brokers, or producers
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General Agent
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an independent businessperson rather than an employee of the insurance company is authorized by contract with the insurer to sell insurance in a specified territory and recruits and trains subagents or agents or special agent
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Personal Producing General Agent
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Sell for one or more insurers, often with a higher-than-normal agent’s commission and seldom hires other agents.
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Branch Manager
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Who is a company employee compensated by a combination of salary, bonus, and commissions related to the productivity of the office, employs and trains agents with the consent of the company.
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Owns the X-Date
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An independent agent owns the x-date; that is, he or she has the right to contact the customer when a policy is due for renewal.
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Redlining
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Occurs when an insurer designates a geographical area in which it chooses not to provide insurance, or to provide it only at substantially higher prices.
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Service
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The ultimate indicator on which the quality of the product provided by insurance depends
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Engineering and Loss Control
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Methods of prevention and reduction of loss whenever the efforts required are economically feasible.
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Actuarial Analysis
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A highly specialized mathematic analysis that deals with the financial and risk aspects of insurance, takes past losses and projects them into the future to determine the reserves an insurer needs to keep and the rates to charge
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Actuary
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Determines the proper rates and reserves, certifies financial statements, participates in product development and assists in overall management and planning
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Loss Development
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Calculation of how amounts paid for losses increase (or mature) over time for the purpose of future projection
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Incurred losses
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Both paid losses plus known but not yet paid losses
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Incurred but not Reported (IBNR) Losses
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Estimated losses that insureds did not claim yet but are expected to materialize in the future
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Mortality Curve
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Illustrates the relationship between age and the probability of death
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Capital and Surplus
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a highly specialized mathematic analysis that deals with the financial and risk aspects of insurance, takes past losses and projects them into the future to determine the reserves an insurer needs to keep and the rates to charge
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Reinsurance
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An arrangement by which an insurance company (ceding insurer) transfers all or a portion of its risk under a contract of insurance to another company (assuming reinsurer) thus seeking protection
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Three types of reinsurance
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Treaty, facultative, and a combination of these
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Treaty
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The original insurer is obligated to automatically reinsure any new underlying insurance contract that meets the terms of a prearranged treaty, and the reinsurer is obligated to accept certain responsibilities for the specified insurance
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Facultative
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Both the primary insurer and the reinsurer retain full decision-making powers with respect to each insurance contract;
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Proportional (pro rata) reinsurance
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The reinsurer assumes a prespecified percentage of both premiums and losses
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Ceding Commission
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A fee paid by the reinsurer to the original insurer
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Nonproportional Reinsurance
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Obligates the reinsurer to pay losses when they exceed a designated threshold
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Excess-loss reinsurance
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Requires the reinsurer to accept amounts of insurance that exceed the ceding insurer's retention limit
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Aggregate Reinsurance Policy
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Can be purchased for coverage against potentially catastrophic situations faced by the primary insurer
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Claims Adjusting
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The process of paying insureds after they sustain losses
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Claim Adjuster
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Represents the insurer when the policyholder presents a claim for payment
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Company Adjuster
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They handle larger claims
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An Independent Adjuster
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An employee of an adjusting firm that works for several different insurers and receives a fee for each claim handled
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Claim adjuster's job
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o investigating the circumstances surrounding a loss;
o determining whether the loss is covered or excluded under the terms of the contract; o deciding how much should be paid if the loss is covered; o paying valid claims promptly, and o resisting invalid claims. |