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76 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
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Van Evera
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We should stay in Europe and other industrialized regions
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Wohlforth on polarity
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The stability of a unipolar world
Unipolarity is durable, and prone to peace |
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Monteiro on Polarity
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Why unipolarity is not peaceful,
Smaller states have an incentive for recalcitrance because there is ambiguity about the extent to which the unipole will react |
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Waltz on Polarity
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Bipolar systems are stable because in bipolar systems, nations balance internally, in multi polar systems, they must also balance externally, which is more difficult.
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Deutsch and Singer on Polarity
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Multipolar systems are more stable because as more great powers emerge, the balance of power theory. A greater number of interactions increases the possibility of cooperative interactions.
Also decreases amount of attention that nations are afforded each state. |
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Zakaria 'Why do they hate us?'
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This recent history between America and Arabia helps to explain the antagonistic relationship between Arab states and the United States. There is also a demographic issue of young, unemployed men.
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Post et al. on suicide terrorism
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There is no individual model for suicide terrorism. Charismatic leaders...
Assembly line logic |
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Dying to Win Part 1
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Suicide terrorism is usually part of an organized campaign, target democracies and have a strategic goal.
Coercion is the main objective of suicide terrorism Altruistic logic of suicide terrorism |
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Cutting the Fuse Part 1
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Still military occupation is the the reason for suicide terrorism
But there when you have two national identities the one that is threaten overcomes the other Transnational terrorism rooted in a group logic Filtering, discovering, cutting, determining |
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Benson on the internet
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The internet gives more net utility to the government than terrorists. Not a substitute for in person interactions.
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Logics of suicide terrorism
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Strategic, social and individual
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Sons of Anbar
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During the surge, we paid those in the Anbar provence not to kill us.
Strategy of offshore balancing, relying on local allies with more air and naval power. |
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Logics of suicide terrorism
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Strategic (coercion), social (mass support) and individual (altruistic)
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Falkenrath
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America's Achilles Heel
Chemical weapons are the easiest to acquire but the least effective Biological weapons are the most effective, and easier to acquire than nuclear weapons. Nuclear weapons are difficult to acquire for non state actores. The United States is particularly vulnerable to covert attacks by both state and non state actors. |
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Competing visions for US grand strategy
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Neo isolationism, selective engagement, cooperative security, primacy
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Neo isolationism
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nobody has the power to threaten the sovereignty of the US so it is inherently a very secure country. Nuclear weapons increase the political capacity of others to threaten the safety, but make it very hard for any power to really win. More concerned with the costs of intervention than the costs of non intervention.
High degree of confidence in the nuclear revolution. |
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Selective engagement (offshore balancing)
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Ensure peace among the great powers. Focus on large concentrations of power because regional hegemons can threaten US security.
Medium high degree of confidence in the nuclear revolution. |
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Cooperative security
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Huge interest in world peace.
Prefer to work multilaterally. The only one that is not based off of realism-- liberalism. Very little degree of confidence in the nuclear revolution. |
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Primacy
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Only the guarantee of US power ensures peace. And peace is broken by the imbalance of power.
Very large force structure, and must keep up with the latest military technology. Want to prevent proliferation. |
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Art and Cronin on Coercive Diplomacy
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Coercive diplomacy is exerting military power just short of war.
These authors think that coercive diplomacy is dangerous and should not be taken lightly. Also think that it generally does not work. |
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Competing visions for offshore balancing
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Engagement, restraint and detachment
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Key aspects offshore balancing
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Power is not benign- There is a risk that others will balance against you.
Will act as a military balancer of last resort. Retain command of the commons- ie Naval passages |
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Realism (tenats)
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Rational actors- regims type doesn't matter
Maximize hegemony and power Anarchical international system |
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Liberalism (tenets)
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Regime type matters (democratic peace theorem)
Economic independence Anarchical international system |
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Suicide terrorism campaigns
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Lebenon, Hamas, Tamil Tigers, Punjab, Kurds in Turkey, Chechnya, Kashmir
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Restraint offshore balancing
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Base model. US should reduce global military footprint while still maintaining power projection capabilities
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Detachment
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More confident in other strategies than getting involved in a great power war. But willing to go to war for oil.
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Engagement
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Less faith in regional abilities to balance quickly and prevent instability.
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2 types of nuclear bombs
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Uranium (gun type), Plutonium (sphere type)
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NPT
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IAEA inspections, and buying uranium on the free market.
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Bush national security strategy
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Primacy
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Obama national security strategy
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Cooperative security, emphasizes the threat of nuclear weapons.
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Threat inflations and the failure of the marketplace of ideas- Kaufman
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We got the Iraq war wrong because
Democratic political systems may be inherently vulnerable to issue manipulation. The president has the bully pulpit on issues of foreign policy, and a monopoly of public information also the crisis atmosphere caused by 9/11. |
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The Israel Lobby- Meirsheimer and Walt
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Due to domestic politics we have a skewed relationship with Israel. Terrorists that target Israel wouldn't target us if we didn't support Israel.
Much of the region that states in the region want nuclear weapons is that Israel has them. The Israel lobby has the most trouble controlling the rhetoric on college campuses. |
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Brodie: Strategy in the Missile Age
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Key change is that the defense is not catching up at the same rate as the offense. The three options are preventive war, pre-emptive strike and massive retaliation.
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Jervis- The Nuclear Revolution
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Proliferation is good, no way to hold land, no ability to win wars. Uncertainty about the escalation in light of a possible nuclear conflicts mean that countries are less likely to take risks. Balance of forces.
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Counter value strategies
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Punishment threats, in a nuclear age
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Counter force
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target military systems, denial threats
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Arms and Influence-Schelling
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The important thing about nuclear weapons is the speed at which they can inflict pain. Give your opponent the last clear chance (D3)
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Trip wire
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Putting troops in an area so that the enemy cannot help but kill them. Like in the Berlin crisis.
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Burning bridges
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Forcing yourself into a position where you have to fight.
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Distinction between deterrence and compellence for Schelling
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Deterrene- setting the stage like a trip wire and waiting
Compellence- getting enough momemtum that they have to move. |
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Wohlstetter- The delicate balance of terror
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2nd strike capability is not as assured as we usually think.
2nd strike capability need to have all of the following: Stable peacetime operation Must survive the first strike Communications and command must survive the first strike Must be able to complete retaliation (fuel to reach the target, overcoming passive and active resistance) |
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Steinbruner
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Nuclear decapitation, fewer than 100 judiciously targeted nuclear weapons could so severely damage US communications facilities and command centers as to make second strike very difficult.
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The end of MAD? Leiber and Press
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Strategic nuclear balance has shifted dramatically since the end of the Cold War. The United States now stands on the cusp of nuclear primacy. The decline of Russia and the growth of the US nuclear capabilities.
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The Logic of Zero- a world without nuclear weaposn Daalder
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Creating a world without nuclear weapons is possible in 4 steps.
1. Washington needs to establish as official policy the limited purpose of nuclear weapons by others 2. US should reduce its nuclear arsenal to no more than 1000. 3. The US needs to work to put in place a comprehensive international nuclear regime control. 4. Finally the US must launch a vigorous diplomatic effort to convince the world of the logic of zero. |
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The spread of nuclear weapons Sagan and Waltz
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Because war, according to Waltz is caused by uncertainty, the certainty associated with nuclear weapons deters war.
Nuclear weapons will also stabilize unstable regimes. |
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Assumptions of Sagan's argument
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There must not be a preventative war during the transition period
Both sides must develop second strike capability Nuclear arsenals must not be prone to auauthorized or accidental use. |
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Posen
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US Security in a nuclear armed world- what if Iraq had nuclear weapons. The US should have tried to liberate Kuwait because of the general strategic consequences of inaction. To support a liberation campaign the United States should have pursued a strategy in interwar deterrence. The coaliition, should ahve pursued a strategy of "limited war"
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Static balance
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Count the number of nuclear forces on each side
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Dynamic balance
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Assessment of net result of hypothetical change
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Nuclear triad
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Air leg (bombers), land leg (ICBM), Sea Leg (SLBN)
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The Future of Air Power- Warden
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Command structure
Industry Transportation/logistical control Population/food sources Fielded military forces |
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Rolling thunder
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Failed because it inflicted costs and risks primarily primarily on civilians. Military target were not effective because of the guerilla war campaign.
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When Governments Collide Thies
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Each side looks through the rational unitary actor lens which causes problems like in Vietnam.
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Press- The myth of air power in the Perian Gulf
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Basically he says that the success of air campaign in the Persian Gulf war has been gernally overstated.
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Pape's argument on international sanctions
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that they usually don't do that much good and sometimes backfire.
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Strategic bombing schools
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Modern strategic bombing- modern technology allows you to smash strategic economic centers.
Army school- air power cannot win a major war, ground was is what matters Pape- the uniform technology on air power is not uniform accross the spectrum of conflict. |
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Douhet strategy
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Using air power to destroy civilian targets to cause a civilian uprising
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Industrial web
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Fast like the douhet strategy, attacking the war economy but does this by attacking critical civilian nodes.
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Schelling
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Slow, holding out for more
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Denial
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Increase the expectation of future military failure
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The war for Kosovo- Posen
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Milosevik had a strategy, it worked well and understanding how the war ended
Although not as succesful as they had hoped, Serbia still had several gains |
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Lambath- NATO's air campaign
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NATO's air assault was the very first victory to be gained only by air however, it had a lot of problems and we were suprised that we won, so we shouldn't use it again.
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Winning with allies- the strategic value of the Afghan model Griffith et. al.
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Working with allied forces, some SOV forces and using air power.
Weaknesses are that it depends on the skill of the ally and they must have the incentive to work with us. |
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Allies airpower and modern warfare- Biddle
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The Afghan model is based on very restrictive conditions. That won't work for Iraq
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Stealth
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Reduces radar cross section by turning the plane on its side and then on its corner. This means that the best targets are those that are most tightly guarded. This means that it is best suited for a decapitation strategy.
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Libya and the new standard for humantitarian intervention- Pape
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Standards are
Ongoing mass homicde Low cost of military intervention Must not have high costs in the long term. |
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How to half the butchery in Syria- AM Slaughter
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Create no kill zones with the help of the international community
Arming the opposition to create the no kill zones. |
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Paul Staniland
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Anne Marie Slaughter's plan is basically that it has offensive undertones
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Balance of interests theorists
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Jervis, Schelling and Trachtenburg
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Balance of forces theorists
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Brodie and Wohlstetter
Betts is both |
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Now or never
A negotiated transition in Syria |
Should take three stages
An early transfer of power that would preserve the integrety of key state institutions A gradual yet thorough overhaul of security services Use a justice process to convince minority groups to buy in |
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Occupational hazards- Why military operations succeed or fail Edelstein
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Three factors make for a succesful occupation
1. Recognition by the occupied population of the need for an occupation 2. Perception that the occupier of a common external threat to the occupied terretory 3. Credibility- credibility that the occupier will leave when they are no longer neccesary. |
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Betts Osarisk falacy
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Basically the Israeli airforce does not really have the capacity stop the Iranian nuclear programs.
also, when they bombed the Iraqi nuclear program they didn't set them back that much Also thinks that it is likely that they have other parts of their nuclear program that no one knows about Authors suggestions are to use ecnomic carrots and sticks as well as a replication of the cold war strategy of containment. |
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Time to Attack Iran-Kronig
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We should attack Iran now, before they get a nuclear weapons, the consequences of the Iranians getting a nuclear weapon are under stated.
Limits US freedom of action in the region Iran's regional rivals would have incentives to get nuclear weapons Iran could give technology to terrorist groups. A type II deterrence strategy would be incredibly expensive. |
