Review Sheet Final Exam Pols 3365

Front 1

difference between puncutated equilibrium model of rivalry and evolutionary approach model of rivalry

Back 1

The punctuated equilibrium model

Long periods of stability with little or no change and interrupted by brief periods of rapid change (goertz and diehl)

2. Evolutionary model

Hansel (1996) – rivalries change over time in response to interactions between the rival states, passing through three different phases of rivalry

- Early, intermediate, advanced

Front 2

Know the differences between the rivalry approach to the study of war and the “causes of

war” approach

Back 2

The concept of rivalry inherently assumes that conflicts are related over space and time

· The “Causes of war” approach assumes that conflicts are independent of one another across space and time

· Empirical evidence seems to support the rivalry approach

Front 3

Know the four central components of power transition theory

PT theory has four central components:

Back 3

. Structure of the international system

2. Power

3. Satisfaction

4. Alliances

Front 4

Know how power is defined by power transition theory

Back 4

Power: “the ability to impose on or persuade an opponent to comply with demands.”

Front 5

Know how power transition theory views alliances and how this differs from balance of power theory.

Back 5

Role of Alliance

· Nations that share common preferences will form stable alliances (Nato)

· Alliances between satisfied – dissatisfied states will not last long

Front 6

Be familiar with the timing of conflict in power transitions

Power transition theory predicts that war (global or regional) will be most likely when:

Back 6

there is parity between the dominant power and challenger, and

2. the challenger surpasses the dominant power

3. the challenger is dissatisfied

Front 7

. Know what the phoenix factor is

The Phoenix factor:

Back 7

· Defeated great powers will quickly regain power and return to their position in the international system within one generation.

Front 8

Be familiar with the policy prescriptions from power transition theory

Back 8

Regarding alliances

o Expand NATO to include Russia and China

Regarding international organizations:

o Change the permanent UN security council members

Create Binding Economic Ties:

o Manage satisfaction through democratization and trade

Front 9

13. Know the roles of U.S. Presidents as proposed by Ostrom and Job

Back 9

The President and the Political use of Force

· Use of Force (not including wars) by U.S. Presidents (1946-76)

· The President is a decision maker operating within three capacities

1. Commander in Chief (International)

2. Chief Executive (Domestic)

3. Political Leader (Elections)

Front 10

14. Know the key findings of the Ostrom and Job study regarding diversionary behavior and military conflict

Back 10

International variables are important, but so are domestic and political variables

· President is more prone to use force in bad economic times

· When the president has a high approval rating, he has a buffer zone of popularity and is more likely to use force

- But when his success is on the decline he may also turn to force to bail himself out.

· Contradicts previous work (Blechman and Kaplan) that suggested that international factors were the most important

· A pattern is found that matches with the election cycle, but they suggest that it is not as important as other factors.

Front 11

. Know the basic ideas behind why leaders might use diversionary behavior

Back 11

Leader’s have a desire to stay in office

2. When faced with an external threat, groups become more cohesive

3. A leader’s approval increases following a use of military force – rally around the flag effect (trails off after a period of time. IE Iraq war)

Front 12

17. Know how the cybernetic decision-making model used by Ostrom and Job differs from a rational choice model

Back 12

Cybernetic Decision-making model

· Leaders consider a limited set of critical factors (unlike rational choice)

Front 13

18. Know the foreign policy goals that Ostrom and Job assume that all U.S. presidents had during the 1946-1976 period

Back 13

U.S. Presidents share three goals (1946-76)

1. A preference for action

2. Anti-communism

3. Containment of the USSR

Front 14

Know the arguments for why alliances might increase the probability of war

alliances make war more likely

Back 14

they generate counter alliances and arms races

· audience costs

· permanent alliances reduce the number of potential coalitions against the aggressors

· selection effects

Front 15

21. Know the different types of alliances distinguished by the Correlates of War (COW) project

· Types of alliances:

Back 15

alliances:

a. Defense pact

b. Neutrality/ non- aggression pact

c. Entente (weakest of the agreements)

d.

Front 16

22. Know the difference between necessary and sufficient conditions and how they have been applied to the study of alliances and war by Jack Levy in the readings for class.

Back 16

Sufficient condition

· Every X (alliance) will be followed by Y (war)

· Some wars may occur when there is no X (alliance)

Necessary condition

· Every war (Y) will be preceded by an alliance (x)

· Some alliances (X) may not lead to war

Front 17

. Know the basic, fundamental assumptions, of lateral pressure theory

Back 17

Assumptions of Lateral pressure

1. Humans need a minimal amount of basic resources

2. Resource demands increase with population size and technological advancements

3. Resources are scarce

When resource availability fails to keep up with demand, lateral pressure builds

Front 18

. Know the three “master” variables of lateral pressure theory

Back 18

Population

Increases all demographic features

2. Technology

Mechanical and organizational knowledge and skills

3. Access to resources

Arable land, water, minerals, metals, fibers, fuels, and other raw materials

Front 19

Know the conditions under which lateral pressure theory would expect conflict to arise

Back 19

War is more likely when relatively equal states contend for resources employing hostile lateral pressure.

Front 20

28. Know what the most common issue at stake in militarized disputes is

Back 20

Territory

Front 21

Know the differences between Neo-Malthusians and Cornicopians

Back 21

Malthuse – Population will expand at greater rate than food supply

Front 22

. Know the assumptions of expected utility theory discussed in class.

Back 22

War decision-making is dominated by a single leader

2. Leaders are rational expected utility maximizes

3. Leaders have different risk attitudes, or the probability of success a leader demands before pursuing a course of action

4. Uncertainty about the behavior of other states in the event of war affects decision-making

5. Nations lose strength with distance

Front 23

. Know the definition of rationality when applied to expected utility theory

Back 23

Rational: select highest ranked alternative