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### 49 Cards in this Set

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 The process of automatically monitoring and adjusting the smoothing constants in an exponential smoothing model Adaptive Smoothing A technique for determining the accuracy of a forecasting model by measuring the average error and its direction Bias Models that forcase using variables and factors in addition to time Causal Models An average of the values centered at a particular point in time. This is used to compute seasonal incices when trend is present. Centered Moving Average A group of experts in a Delphi technique that has the responsibility of making the forecast. Decision-Making Group A forecasting model that decomposes a time series into its seasonal and trend components Decomposition A judgmental forecasting technique that uses decision makers, staff personnel, and respondents to determine a forecast Delphi Time series data in which each value has been divided by its seasonal index to remove the effect of the seasonal component Deseasonalized Data Another term used in forecasting for error. Deviation The difference between the actual value and the forecast value Error A forecasting method that is a combination of the last forecast and the last observed value Exponential Smoothing An exponential smoothing model that includes a trend component. This is also called a double exponential smoothing model or a second-order smoothing model. Holt's Method A procedure used in trend projection and regression analysis to minimize the squared distances between the estimated straight line and the observed value Least Squares A technique for determining the accuracy of a forecasting model by taking the average of the absolute deviations Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) A technique for determining the accuracy of a forecasting model by taking the average of the absolute errors as a percentage of the observed values Mean Absolute Percent Eroor (MAPE) A technique for determing the accuracy of a forecasting model by taking the average of the squared error terms for a forecasting model. Mean Squared Error(MSE) A forecasting technique that averages past values in computing the forecast. Moving Average A time-series forecasting model in which the forecast for next period is the actual value for the current period. Naive Model Models that forecast using judgements, experience, and qualitative and subjective data Qualitative Models Used to develop a trackin signal or time-series forecasting models, this is a running total of the errors and may be positive or negative Running Sum of Forecast Errors (RSFE) Diagrams of the variable to be forecasted, plotted against another variable, such as time Scatter Diagrams An index number that indicates how a particular season compares with an average time period (with an index of 1 indicating an average season) Seasonal Index A value between 0 and 1 that is used in an exponential smoothing forecast. Smoothing Constant Models that forecast using only historical data. Time-Series Models A measure of how well the forecast is predicting actual values Tracking Signal The use of a trend line to forecast a time-series with trend present. A linear trend line is a regression line with time as the independent variable. Trend Projection A moving average forecasting method that places different weights on past values. Weighted moving average A situation in which more than one optimal solution is possible. It arises when the slope of the objective function is the same as the slope of a constraint. Alternate Optimal solution A restriction on the resources available to a firm stated in the form of an inequality or an equation Constraint A point that lies on one of the corners of the feasible region. This means that it falls at the intersection of two constraint lines. Corner Point or Extreme Point The method of finding the optimal solution to an LP problem by testing the profit or cost level at each corner point of the feasible region. The theory of LP states that the optimal solution must lie at one of the corner points Corner Point Method The improvement in the objective function value that results from one-unit increase in the right-hand side of that constraint Dual Price (value) THe area satisfying all of the problem's resource restrictions; that is, the region where all constraints overlap. All possible solutions to the problem lie in the feasible region. Feasible Region A point lying in the feasible region. Basically, it is any point that satisfies all of the problem's constraints Feasible Solution A mathematical expression containing a greater than- or- equal - to relations (>) or a less than- or - equal - to relation (<) used to indicate that the total consumption of a resource must be > or < some limiting value. Inequality Any point lying outside the feasible region. It violates one or more of the stated constraints Infeasible Solution A straight line representing all combinations of X1 and X2 for a particular cost level Isocost line A straight line represents all nonnegative combinations of X1 and X2 for a particualr profit level Isoprofit line A mathematical technique used to help management decide how to make the most effective use of an organization's resources Linear Programming (LP) The general category of mathematical modeling and solution techniques used to allocate resources while optimizing a measurable goal. LP is one type of programming model. Mathematical Programming A set of constraints hat requires each decision variable to be nonnegative; that is, each X1 must be greater than or equal to 0. Nonnegativity Constraints A mathematical statement of the goal of an organization, stated as an intent to maximize or to minimize some important quantity such as profits or costs. Objective Function A common LP problem involving a decision as to which products a form should produce given that it faces limited resources Product Mix Problem The presence of one or more constraints that do not affect the feasible solution region Redundancy THe study of how sensitive an optimal solution is to model assumptions and to data changes. It is often referred to as postoptimality analysis Sensitivity Analysis The increase in the objective function value that results from one- unit increase in the right-hand side of that constraint Shadow Price The algebraic means of solving for the intersection point of two or more linear constraint equations Simultaneous Equation Method Coefficients of the varialbes in the constraint equations. The coefficients represent the amount of resources needed to produce one unit of the variable Technological Coefficients A condition that exists whena solution variable and the profit can be made indinitely large without violating any of the problem's constraints in a maximization process Unboundedness.