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100 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
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public opinion
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citizens attitudes about political issues, leaders ,institutions, and events
empirical |
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public behavior
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the study of individual voter behavior (includes study of opinion, ideology, and political participation)
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public opinion and representation
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opinion --> office holders --> policy (elections to government)
your opinion who gets in office, who then determines policy doesn't really get public opinion transferred to policy |
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political theory
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normative
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opinion constructed ...
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beliefs + values = attitudes or opinions
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beliefs
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assumptions we make about how the world works
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values
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ideals (or beliefs) we hold to be important in our daily lives
rules about how society should be run, when talking about values |
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attitudes
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a positive or negative feeling about a particular object
not directly observable, they are internal visible when interacting |
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opinions
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expression of attitudes
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Machiavelli
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Politics should be run by one person; power is important
Public opinion should be ignored, but managed by those in power |
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Hobbes, 1651
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wrote Leviathan
politics is a social contract between man and government - the government should act as a protection of the individual rights of man public opinion can call for a creation or replace existing government -people shouldn't have actual say, but if the government needs to be re-instated, the public should have that say |
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Locke, 1682
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Treatises of Two Governments
politics should be based in the protection of individual liberties public opinion gives legitimacy to government but must be checked |
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Mill, 1859
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On Liberty
politics maximize the public good with-out hurting anyone public opinion is the heart of the government in so much that tyranny is prevented |
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Rousseau, 1859
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The Social Contract
politics should provide for the general will public opinion is the organic will of the community; should be elevated to its highest forms |
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Aristotle, 350 BC
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Politics (lectures)
Politics should be run on the concept of distributive justice --participate more, than you should benefit the most public opinion can be destructive, thus it should be only selectively listened to |
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Hegel
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Politics is an expression of individuality and of self
public opinion should be a venue for expression and to alleviate social pressures Belief in the collective will of the people |
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plato, 380 BC
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The Republic
politics is run by philosopher - kings who understand politics public opinion is useless. The public gets it wrong, so there's no need to listen to them at all |
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The founding fathers
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we are a democratic republic
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federalist papers
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madison, hamilton, and ...
a defense of the consitution defend it in terms of being ratified christian beliefs --> wanted to protect Gods creations - individual rights and freedoms |
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democrats and republicans
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difference in individual rights and liberties
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Federalist 10
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Founders knew that Public Opinion could sway very easily
-government should not always change due to PO -PO is sometimes wrong. |
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factions
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form groups who have similar opinions
group that are bigger have more power PROBLEM: could create a tyrannizing government AND minorities are easily ignored this way |
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Individuals don't have real power
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part of the Federalist 10 (?)
no real say in what happens. Power is directly removed from the people -electoral college, State representatives, etc. |
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Post-Founding Theorist change
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Normative to Empirical
what the world out to be, to how the public actually plays a role in the US |
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De Tocqueville, 1840
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Democracy in America
observed the US in its early years commented on the unusual nature of participatory politics coming from France during the French revolution, US is ideal -Town Hall meetins, people actually have a say |
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Lippman, 1922
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Public Opinion
movement away from theory public opinion is inconsistent writes after WWI -sees Public Opinion as the cause of the failure of the League of Nations Looked at the psychology of opinion -nothing in a persons brain that makes the politically inclined public phantom |
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Gallup, 1940's
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grandfather of the modern poll
people can rely on polling to serve democratic purpose (scientifically measure what the public is saying) criticized current polling techniques - unscientific, very subjective very influential in getting representatives to pay attention to the polls -avenue of representation |
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Blumer and Rogers, 1948/9
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skeptics of polls
questioned who and what polls measured public is dumb, don't know much about politics |
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Fishkin, 1997
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Moves beyond the purpose of a regular poll
Describes deliberative polling as the next frontier in public opinion |
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Fishkin's study
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polled 600 people at a university
after they took a poll they discussed in small groups about the candidates and their opinions on the topics post-polls results were different because people learn more from discussion - people aren't politically knowledgeable, so they avoid political conversations --> stay dumb we dont get political discussion opportunities without the town hall meetings, etc |
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How do we measure public opinion?
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polls
vote talking to representatives IEM (Iowa Electronic Markets) |
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Straw Polls
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1800's/1900's
method of determining popular sentiment by using unscientific methods used it really just to sell newspapers by sensationalizing elections |
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Literary Digest Poll
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1936
predicted that FDR would lose to Landon --> WRONG was very well known for predicting presidential election, but methodology was bad Need random samples to conduct a representative poll |
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Dewey vs. Truman election
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1948
Gallup got it wrong as well, Newspapers printed that Dewey won based on exit polls |
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1940's methodology for measuring public opinion
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academic research
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Why are polls important?
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check yourself
-others have an effect on you avoid manipulation -politicians take advantage of ability to manipulate educate yourself -info given from polls does influence the nation |
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Who conducts polls?
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news media
candidates (find out where they should go, what they should talk about) government organizations (IRS about cheating on taxes) private companies frivolous pollsters |
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How do we measure public opinion?
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polls
vote talking to representatives IEM (Iowa Electronic Markets) |
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Benchmark studies
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conducted by candidates
-asses performance -dictates the tone and structure of campaigns -timing is crucial - ask about name recognition, candidate evaluation in terms of other candidates in the race, etc |
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Straw Polls
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1800's/1900's
method of determining popular sentiment by using unscientific methods used it really just to sell newspapers by sensationalizing elections |
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trail heat studies
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directly compare two candidates, often in their electability
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Tracking studies
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polls that are conducted on a near daily basis, very close to an election, to track changes in strategies for candidates
- what counties to campaign in more, etc |
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Literary Digest Poll
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1936
predicted that FDR would lose to Landon --> WRONG was very well known for predicting presidential election, but methodology was bad Need random samples to conduct a representative poll |
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Dewey vs. Truman election
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1948
Gallup got it wrong as well, Newspapers printed that Dewey won based on exit polls |
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1940's methodology for measuring public opinion
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academic research
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Why are polls important?
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check yourself
-others have an effect on you avoid manipulation -politicians take advantage of ability to manipulate educate yourself -info given from polls does influence the nation |
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Who conducts polls?
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news media
candidates (find out where they should go, what they should talk about) government organizations (IRS about cheating on taxes) private companies frivolous pollsters |
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Benchmark studies
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conducted by candidates
-asses performance -dictates the tone and structure of campaigns -timing is crucial - ask about name recognition, candidate evaluation in terms of other candidates in the race, etc |
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trail heat studies
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directly compare two candidates, often in their electability
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Tracking studies
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polls that are conducted on a near daily basis, very close to an election, to track changes in strategies for candidates
- what counties to campaign in more, etc |
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panel studies
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individuals are followed over time and polled on the same questions
individual opinion change over time |
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focus groups
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respondents are given an opportunity to express their viewpoints in a small group
-recorded or observed unobtrusively |
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deliberative groups
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respondents discuss a topic and then are polled on that topic
-learn from each other |
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exit polls
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polls that are given upon exiting a voting precinct
can determine the outcome of the votes, news organizations will try and predict the winner before the actual votes are in |
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push polls
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polls that are intended to change people's opinions rather than measure opinion
-pseudo poll no science to it influence public opinion ex: Barack Obama eats babies. Will you vote for him in the 2012 election? |
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Sampling
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the subset of respondents that a poll, survey, or study selects from broader population
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representative
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your sample can illustrate what is going on in the public
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generalizability
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if you have a scientific example than your sample can be generalized
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probability sampling
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every unit in the broader population has an equal chance of being selected
simple random sample probability proportionate to size stratified sampling snowball sampling |
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simple-random-sample
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easiest and most accurate
list of the entire population you are studying and select randomly - complete lists don't exist, will be biased because some will be missing - illegals, homeless, etc |
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probability-proportionate-to-size
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draw your sample proportionality from the population based on the size
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stratified sampling
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sample a particular characteristic and make it proportionate (race, age, religion)
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snowball sampling
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do study, then as the person that you polled if they know anyone else who would be good for the survey (fit the criteria)
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non-probability sampling
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every unit in the broader population does not have an equal chance of being selected
convenience sampling voluntary sampling |
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convenience sampling
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population is available to researcher
NOT RANDOM undergrads for grad student research |
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voluntary sampling
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people volunteer to take a survey
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Purposive Sampling
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the researcher employs a subjective set of criteria to select the study's population
quota sampling typical case sampling simliar/dissimilar case sampling |
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quota sampling
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include a distribution of a demographic region
fill a quote, want a particular amount of a particular demographic |
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typical case sampling
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pick a particular person to sample of group of people depending on what you want to study
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similar/dissimilar case sampling
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pick cases that exemplify differences
pick specific people |
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Literary Digest Poll of 1936
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presidential election FDR vs. Landon
the non-response rate was high! only a small fraction of the people who were polled responded not due to lack of representation (Also bad though, didn't include much of the poor, they didnt own cars, or in phone directory) |
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sampling size
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the amount of people needed in the sample to make the sample representative
in the US need 1,000 people 1040 is ideal number for 300,000,000 |
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sampling error
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allows the investigator to estimate how far the results are from the total population
margin of error is +4/-4% of the true value of the sample |
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confidence interval
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the likelihood that the values of the study will fall in the range given by the error
99% confidence interval is the best if the margin of error is larger, than you need more people to sample |
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response rates
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the percentage of people that respond to a poll or study
Telephone concern: not everyone has a landline now, cell phones aren't always in directories |
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weighing
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segments of the sample may be more heavily accounted for, to take biases in account
- if you know you dont have enough of some demographic to make it representative, you can statistically give more attention to one person of that demographic |
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data collection
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questionnaires
telephone surveys interviews internet |
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questionnaires
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strengths: cost, training, no interviewer bias, privacy, visual aids
weaknesses: response rate are low (only 10%), clarification, who completes it? cognitive burden, time |
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telephone surveys
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strengths: time, cost (cheaper than interviews), clarification
weakness: training, visual aids, interviewer bias, lack of candor(respondents are less forthcoming) |
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interviews
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strengths: rich data, response rate, flexibility, level of candor is high (trust between participants)
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internet
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strengths: cost is low, time is fast, audio/visual aids are easy, data analysis is simplified
weakness: internet access is limited (only 80% of US have it), self-selection, lack of research |
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instrument effect
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effect that coes from the question, poll, instrument, etc.
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interviewer effect
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effect that comes from the interviewer
-training can control for this issue of reliability --> interviewer affect can cause a change in response from time 1 to time 2 also issue of race, gender training enables use of consistent tone of voice and wording |
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micro-level opinion
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study of opinions at the individual level; focusing on the cognitive processing of opinions
-opinion formation --mostly from parents -opinion stability --what goes on in the brain to create opinions, not very stable opinions -political knowledge --not very high in US |
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political socialization
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the process by which an individual learns their beliefs, values, attitudes, and opinions about political matters
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stages of childhood development
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preschool
early childhood late childhood adolescence |
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aspects of development
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sophistication/knowledge
-what you now about politics citizenship -do children know how it is to be a part of the US Analytic Ability -at what poing are children taking in the info and analyzing |
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preschool
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3 to 5 yrs old
acquistion of political knowledge begins lack of sophistication in values politics is conflated w/religion and authority strong signs of nationalism no analytical ability |
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preschool citizenship
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see political figures having the same power/level as religious figures
only 10% recognize the president 60% recognize the flag |
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early childhood
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6 to 9 yrs old
knowledge of politics is expanding quickly, but inaccuracies in what they know concept of citizenship becomes more complex -identify as a US citizen analytic processes begin to form and take shape |
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early childhood citizenship
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49% believe that it is better to vote for your party than the best candidate (analytical judgment)
--trying to be a good citizen, but dont know how |
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late childhood
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10 to 12 yrs old
learn to correct inaccuracies in political knowledge learn the ideals of citizenship and of what it is to be the best citizen beging to be analytical and critical of government - asses high level concepts, but very naive --trusting of the government --think govt will take care of them |
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late childhood citizenship/analytic ability
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84% say govt knows whats best
54% think its okay to speak out against the govt --TOO TRUSTING |
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Adolescence
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13 to 18
political learning reaches its heigh self-interset and concerned for the community identify as citizens and able to identify rights of citizens see shades of D and R politicians are de-idolized -criticize a lot more -ideals about what it is to be American, follow the law, respectful still remains |
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socialization findings
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empirical verification --> generalizations, very hard to verify (poor kids, may not respect authority as much, etc)
minorities and socialization--> AA usually wouldn't respect police as much due to police being racist, etc Political Events |
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Agents of Socialization
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forces or factors that are imperative and influence the learning of our political beliefs, values, attitude, and opinions
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six agents of socialization
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family, peers, genetics, education, marriage, media
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socialization via family
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takes place when parents transmit their opinions through
-exposure -communication -receptivity |
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the primacy principle (socialization via family)
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what is learned first is learned best
family is the first exposure you have to politics |
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the structuring principle (socialization via family)
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what is learned first structures later learning
family gets to you first it structures how you learn |
