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### 15 Cards in this Set

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 abductive argument inference to the best explanation; "Suprise Principle" and "Only Game in Town Fallacy" are relevant in deciding how strong an abductive inference is Surprise Principle a principle governing abductive inference; an observation O strongly favors one hypothesis (H1) over another (H2): a.)If H1 were true, you would expect O to be true. b.)If H2 were true, you would expect O to be false Example of Surprise Principle If I am really strong, then I can crumple this piece of paper. I can crumple this piece of paper. Therefore, I am really strong (expected) Only Game in Town Fallacy the error of thinking that you are obliged to believe a proposed explanation of an ovservation just because it's the only explanation that has been proposed Example of Only Game in Town Fallacy a.)If H, then O b.)If not H, then probably not O c.)O Therefore, probably H e.g. Gremlins bowling in the attic Redundancy Theory of Truth this theory claims that to say that a statement is true is to do nothing more than assert that statement: "It's true that the snow is white" is just a long-winded way of saying that snow is white cosmological argument "first cause" by Aquinas: a.) Every sensible event has a cause b.) The cause has to be earlier than the event that it causes c.) Chain of causes can't go on forever/infinetly Therefore, there must be a first cause --leads to the birthday fallacy birthday fallacy a.) Everyone has a birthday Therefore There is a single day that is everyone's birthday a.) Every event has a first cause Therefore there is a single first cause for every event = leads to chaos theory: does every sensible event have a cause? teleological argument "argument from design" by Aquinas a.) Things that lack knowledge act for an end b.) That's only possible if it is directed by an intelligent being Therefore, there is an intelligent being which directs things that lack knowledge for an end = God Examples of Teleological Argument H1=Intelligent Designer (makes probable O) H2=Random Process (makes improbable O) H3=Evolutionary Process (makes probable O) O=Observation of leaves turning to sun a.) If H then very likely O b.) If not H then probably not O Argument from Analogy nondeductive inference in which one infers that a target object T has some characteristic on the ground that T is similar to some other object A (the analog) and A is known to possess that characteristic Example of Argument from Analogy Other galaxies probably contain life, since they are quite similar to our own galaxy and our own galaxy contains life Natural selection requires 1. variations among organisms 2. are inherited 3. affect fitness Global why-questions questions that ask for an explanation of the totality of what has happened in the whole universe's history Local why-questions questions about events that can be answered