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15 Cards in this Set

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abductive argument
inference to the best explanation; "Suprise Principle" and "Only Game in Town Fallacy" are relevant in deciding how strong an abductive inference is
Surprise Principle
a principle governing abductive inference; an observation O strongly favors one hypothesis (H1) over another (H2):
a.)If H1 were true, you would expect O to be true.
b.)If H2 were true, you would expect O to be false
Example of Surprise Principle
If I am really strong, then I can crumple this piece of paper.
I can crumple this piece of paper.
Therefore, I am really strong (expected)
Only Game in Town Fallacy
the error of thinking that you are obliged to believe a proposed explanation of an ovservation just because it's the only explanation that has been proposed
Example of Only Game in Town Fallacy
a.)If H, then O
b.)If not H, then probably not O
c.)O
Therefore, probably H
e.g. Gremlins bowling in the attic
Redundancy Theory of Truth
this theory claims that to say that a statement is true is to do nothing more than assert that statement: "It's true that the snow is white" is just a long-winded way of saying that snow is white
cosmological argument
"first cause" by Aquinas:
a.) Every sensible event has a cause
b.) The cause has to be earlier than the event that it causes
c.) Chain of causes can't go on forever/infinetly
Therefore, there must be a first cause
--leads to the birthday fallacy
birthday fallacy
a.) Everyone has a birthday
Therefore
There is a single day that is everyone's birthday
a.) Every event has a first cause
Therefore
there is a single first cause for every event
= leads to chaos theory: does every sensible event have a cause?
teleological argument
"argument from design" by Aquinas
a.) Things that lack knowledge act for an end
b.) That's only possible if it is directed by an intelligent being
Therefore, there is an intelligent being which directs things that lack knowledge for an end = God
Examples of Teleological Argument
H1=Intelligent Designer (makes probable O)
H2=Random Process (makes improbable O)
H3=Evolutionary Process (makes probable O)
O=Observation of leaves turning to sun
a.) If H then very likely O
b.) If not H then probably not O
Argument from Analogy
nondeductive inference in which one infers that a target object T has some characteristic on the ground that T is similar to some other object A (the analog) and A is known to possess that characteristic
Example of Argument from Analogy
Other galaxies probably contain life, since they are quite similar to our own galaxy and our own galaxy contains life
Natural selection
requires
1. variations among organisms
2. are inherited
3. affect fitness
Global why-questions
questions that ask for an explanation of the totality of what has happened in the whole universe's history
Local why-questions
questions about events that can be answered