Mkt Chp 4

Front 1

Is the danger that political and military upheaval will change the nation’s economic rules and regulations overnight

Back 1

political risk

Front 2

revolution, external aggression
type of political risk

Back 2

general instability stage :1

Front 3

import restrictions,local content rules, taxes ,export req.
type of political risk

Back 3

level 3: operations

Front 4

nationalism, contract revocation

type of political risk

Back 4

level 2: expropriation

Front 5

repatriation restrictions, exchange rates

type of political risk

Back 5

level 4: finance

Front 6

Climate is most obvious environmental factor affecting people’s behavior

one of the environmental dimensions

Back 6

Physical Environment

Front 7

Cultural influences are pervasive in most country markets

one of the environmental dimensions

Back 7

Sociocultural Environment

Front 8

The level of economic development is a major determinant of local buyer behavior

one of the environmental dimensions

Back 8

Economic Environment

Front 9

The institutional framework within which markets function is designed to enable or prohibit certain business practices

one of the environmental dimensions

Back 9

Regulatory Environment

Front 10

The local marketer must read competitive signals to judge the competitors’ future actions

Back 10

Competitive Signaling
(ways to research a competitor)

Front 11

It is possible to get a sense of the financial capability of the competition from annual reports, 10K or corresponding stock exchange filings
Understanding the organizational structure of the competitors helps gauge their local strengths

Back 11

ways to research a competitor

Front 12

The first cut is used to identify candidate countries

Back 12

Country Identification

Front 13

Involves rating the identified countries on macrolevel indicators

Back 13

Preliminary screening

Front 14

Involves assessing market potential and actual market size and other country related factors

Back 14

In-depth screening

Front 15

involves selection of the country to enter cannot and should not be made until personal visits are made to the country and direct experience acquired managers

Back 15

Final selection

Front 16

Four stages for evaluating candidates for foreign market entry

Back 16

Country Identification
Preliminary screening
In-depth screening
Final selection

Front 17

A direct measure of market size can be computed from local production, minus exports, plus imports

Back 17

market size

in depth screening criteria

Front 18

Growth estimates can be obtained by getting the market size measures for different years and computing the growth rates

Back 18

market growth

in depth screening criteria

Front 19

local production - EX + Im

Back 19

Market Size

in depth screening criteria

Front 20

Level of competition can be measured by the number of competitors in the market and the relative size distribution of market shares

Back 20

Competitive Intensity


in depth screening criteria

Front 21

Tariffs, taxes, duties, and transportation costs can be ascertained from official government publications

Back 21

trade barriers

in depth screening criteria

Front 22

Assesses what is likely to be obtained given the probable situation and contemplated strategies

Back 22

sales forecast

Front 23

The focus is on the derivation of sales forecasts at two levels

Back 23

Industry sales and market share

Front 24

Forecasted Industry Sales x Forecasted Market Share

Back 24

forecast sales

Front 25

what is likely to be obtained given the probable situation and contemplated strategies

Back 25

sales forecast

Front 26

what could potentially be achieved under “ideal” conditions

Back 26

Market Potential

Front 27

lack of data means forecasting becomes more subjective
is what stage

Back 27

early stage

Front 28

with data available, quantitative forecasts are feasible

is what stage

Back 28

later stage

Front 29

Three forecasting techniques used in the early stages of the PLC

Back 29

“Build-up” Method
Forecasting by Analogy
Judgmental Methods

Front 30

Generally attempt to introduce a certain amount of rigor and reliability into otherwise quite arbitrary guesses

Back 30

Judgmental Methods

Front 31

Based on the premise that sales of the product in one “lagging” country will show similarities to sales in another “leading” country

Back 31

Forecasting by Analogy

Front 32

Derived from market sales estimated on the basis of separate estimates from individuals knowledgeable about certain market segments

Back 32

Build-up” Method

Front 33

Judgmental Forecasting
4 types

Back 33

The Jury Technique
Expert Pooling
Panel Consensus

Front 34

Attempts to pool the available information from more than one source

Back 34

Panel Consensus

Front 35

Members of the group are asked to submit their separate forecasts with the forecasts being pooled and results again evaluated

Back 35

The Jury Technique

Front 36

Consultation with experts on the country contemplated will always be a cornerstone in sales forecasting where new entry is concerned

Back 36

Expert Pooling

Front 37

Consists of a series of “rounds” of numerical forecasts from a preselected number of experts

Back 37

Delphi Method

Front 38

The primary requirements for statistical extrapolation of foreign sales are

Back 38

That data are available
That past events will continue into the future

Front 39

data observed over some periods in the past is extended into the future

Back 39

Time Series Extrapolation

Front 40

Model designed to answer the question:
When will customers adopt a new product or technology?

Back 40

The Bass Diffusion Model

Front 41

Required prior knowledge to develop a_________forecast

Back 41

regression

Front 42

First, the relevant ___________ of interest needs to be determined – e.g. sales per customer or total sales?
for regression forecast

Back 42

dependent variable

Front 43

Second, the forecaster must try to identify _________________ the dependent variable selected

for regession forecast

Back 43

what factors will affect

Front 44

Regression-Based Forecasts can usefully be divided up
(5)

Back 44

The Size Component
Willingness to Buy
Ability to Buy
Sales per Customer
Market Sales

Front 45

How likely is it that people are going to be able to pay

Back 45

Ability to Buy

Front 46

Multiplying the willingness and ability to buy one can develop an estimate of the amount of probable sales per customer in the target segment

Back 46

Sales per Customer

Front 47

How many people in the target market

Back 47

The Size Component

Front 48

The number of customers times the sales per customer gives the total. forecasted sales

Back 48

Market Sales

Front 49

How likely is it that people are willing to buy the product

Back 49

Willingness to Buy

Front 50

Drawing on informal in-house knowledge and on selected contacts in the market country, a list of competitors is compiled

Back 50

Identifying Competitors
forecasting market share