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60 Cards in this Set

  • Front
  • Back
Major Power Dust-Ups
-Most recent declared war: ww2
-Most recent war: korea
-Most recent armed clash:
-Most recent militarized conflict: cold war
Reasons for Major Power Peace
-Communications
-Interdependence
-Democracy
-International Norms.
-Nukes!
-US hegemony.
Why is democracy good for peace?
-Popular sovereignty
-“Veto points”Externalization of domestic norms of conflict resolution
-Democracies like each other.
US Hegemony
-Can’t challenge US
-No war without US permission
-Interest in averting disruptive events
Economic Interdependence
-“Siamese twin” effect.
-Contagion effect (diffusion of culture).
-Trade improves well-being.
Do International Norms Matter?
-Safety valve
-“Lines on the pavement”
-Forum for peaceful resolution.
-Means for mobilizing support against norm violators.
Leading Power Peace Explanations
-Realist Explanations: US hegemony; nukes
-Liberal Explanations: democracy; globalization; Ios.
Which came first, Peace or GlobalizationWho’s Right?
-Globalization breeds peace (Jervis): among developed
-Peace breeds globalization (Wolf): only after hegemonic power gets system over hump.
-Globalization breeds WAR (Huntington): among developing countries.
The Clash of Civilizations

Why the “Clash”?
-Greater interdependence means greater interaction between members of incompatible “civilizations”.
-Globalization causes state weakness.
US and other major powers
-China: interdependence and nukes and Ios?
-Russia: nukes and US hegemony
-Japan: democracy and interdependence and IOs
-EU: ditto
-India: democracy, interdependence, and nukes.
What undermines them?
-US hegemony: US hegemony
-International organizations: loss of US hegemony
-Globalization: loss of US hegemony
-Democracy: breakdown of globalization
-Nuclear deterrence: NOTHING
The Past so far…
Globalization (Industrial Revolution)  Economic Crises (Gold and fading Brit hegemony)  Hegemonic Transition  WWI  Deglobalization  Realist Incentives  The WW2  Hegemonic Transition Complete  Globalization  Economic Crises  Hegemonic Transition  ????
Differences between 1914 and 2014
-Nukes
-US still very powerful
-International Organization
The Possible Futures
-Best plausible scenario: status quo! Or no hegemonic transition. Or liberal peace breaking out all over the planet.
-Worst plausible scenario: breakdown of globalization, followed by bad stuff.
-Indicators: got nukes?
Nukes, Bugs, and Gas
-Nuclear: nuclear fission and fusion.
-Biological: free range organic.
-Chemical: handcrafted artisanal.
Legal Status
Bio: BWC
Chem: CWC
Nuke: Legal
Why no ban on Nuclear Weapons?
Two reasons: very useful weapons for deterrence. Neither chemical nor biological weapons can approach this combination of lethality and reliability.
Why are nukes legal?
Effective
Exclusive club

Two reasons: Actual usefulness as a deterrent
Tech threshold is high, meaning the number of users is small.
Future Nuclear Battlefields
Pakistan and INdia
Was the Cold War unique?
-Very distant adversaries
-Early warning
-No common border
-Big nuclear arsenals
-No ABM defenses
What undermines them?
-US hegemony: US hegemony
-International organizations: loss of US hegemony
-Globalization: loss of US hegemony
-Democracy: breakdown of globalization
-Nuclear deterrence: NOTHING
The Past so far…
Globalization (Industrial Revolution)  Economic Crises (Gold and fading Brit hegemony)  Hegemonic Transition  WWI  Deglobalization  Realist Incentives  The WW2  Hegemonic Transition Complete  Globalization  Economic Crises  Hegemonic Transition  ????
Differences between 1914 and 2014
-Nukes
-US still very powerful
-International Organization
The Possible Futures
-Best plausible scenario: status quo! Or no hegemonic transition. Or liberal peace breaking out all over the planet.
-Worst plausible scenario: breakdown of globalization, followed by bad stuff.
-Indicators: got nukes?
Nukes, Bugs, and Gas
-Nuclear: nuclear fission and fusion.
-Biological: free range organic.
-Chemical: handcrafted artisanal.
Legal Status
Bio: BWC
Chem: CWC
Nuke: Legal
Why no ban on Nuclear Weapons?
Two reasons: very useful weapons for deterrence. Neither chemical nor biological weapons can approach this combination of lethality and reliability.
Why are nukes legal?
Effective
Exclusive club

Two reasons: Actual usefulness as a deterrent
Tech threshold is high, meaning the number of users is small.
Future Nuclear Battlefields
Pakistan and INdia
What undermines them?
-US hegemony: US hegemony
-International organizations: loss of US hegemony
-Globalization: loss of US hegemony
-Democracy: breakdown of globalization
-Nuclear deterrence: NOTHING
Was the Cold War unique?
-Very distant adversaries
-Early warning
-No common border
-Big nuclear arsenals
-No ABM defenses
The Past so far…
Globalization (Industrial Revolution)  Economic Crises (Gold and fading Brit hegemony)  Hegemonic Transition  WWI  Deglobalization  Realist Incentives  The WW2  Hegemonic Transition Complete  Globalization  Economic Crises  Hegemonic Transition  ????
Differences between 1914 and 2014
-Nukes
-US still very powerful
-International Organization
What undermines them?
-US hegemony: US hegemony
-International organizations: loss of US hegemony
-Globalization: loss of US hegemony
-Democracy: breakdown of globalization
-Nuclear deterrence: NOTHING
The Possible Futures
-Best plausible scenario: status quo! Or no hegemonic transition. Or liberal peace breaking out all over the planet.
-Worst plausible scenario: breakdown of globalization, followed by bad stuff.
-Indicators: got nukes?
The Past so far…
Globalization (Industrial Revolution)  Economic Crises (Gold and fading Brit hegemony)  Hegemonic Transition  WWI  Deglobalization  Realist Incentives  The WW2  Hegemonic Transition Complete  Globalization  Economic Crises  Hegemonic Transition  ????
Nukes, Bugs, and Gas
-Nuclear: nuclear fission and fusion.
-Biological: free range organic.
-Chemical: handcrafted artisanal.
Differences between 1914 and 2014
-Nukes
-US still very powerful
-International Organization
Legal Status
Bio: BWC
Chem: CWC
Nuke: Legal
The Possible Futures
-Best plausible scenario: status quo! Or no hegemonic transition. Or liberal peace breaking out all over the planet.
-Worst plausible scenario: breakdown of globalization, followed by bad stuff.
-Indicators: got nukes?
Nukes, Bugs, and Gas
-Nuclear: nuclear fission and fusion.
-Biological: free range organic.
-Chemical: handcrafted artisanal.
Why no ban on Nuclear Weapons?
Two reasons: very useful weapons for deterrence. Neither chemical nor biological weapons can approach this combination of lethality and reliability.
Legal Status
Bio: BWC
Chem: CWC
Nuke: Legal
Why are nukes legal?
Effective
Exclusive club

Two reasons: Actual usefulness as a deterrent
Tech threshold is high, meaning the number of users is small.
Future Nuclear Battlefields
Pakistan and INdia
Why no ban on Nuclear Weapons?
Two reasons: very useful weapons for deterrence. Neither chemical nor biological weapons can approach this combination of lethality and reliability.
Was the Cold War unique?
-Very distant adversaries
-Early warning
-No common border
-Big nuclear arsenals
-No ABM defenses
Why are nukes legal?
Effective
Exclusive club

Two reasons: Actual usefulness as a deterrent
Tech threshold is high, meaning the number of users is small.
Future Nuclear Battlefields
Pakistan and INdia
Was the Cold War unique?
-Very distant adversaries
-Early warning
-No common border
-Big nuclear arsenals
-No ABM defenses
and the race is on!
UK—deterrence and PRESTIGE
France—deterrence and PRESTIGE
China—US, USSR and PRESTIGE
The Non-Proliferation Treaty, 1970
-The “Grand Bargain”
-Nuclear weapons states (the Big Five) pledge not to use or threaten to use nuclear weapons against non-weapons states, work in good faith to eliminate own nuclear arsenals, and share nuclear energy technology.
-Non-weapons states pledge not to acquire nuclear weapons in return for peaceful nuclear assistance.
-Not a nuclear weapons ban.
Prerequisites for a Nuke
Know-how
Fissile material
Next Best Thing: Test Bans
1963, ptbt, 1966
-1963 Partial Test Ban Treaty: no nuclear explosions in the atmosphere, underwater.
-PTBT Objective: mainly health and safety issues.
-1996 Comprehensive Test Ban Treaty: no nuclear explosions, “peaceful” or otherwise, period.
Next Best Thing: Test Bans
2/3 of un, ctbt, US
-2/3 of UN General Assembly votes in favor; US signs but does not ratify (submitted for ratification 1999,rejected by US Senate).
-CTBT Objective: undermines confidence in new arsenal; makes development of new weapons chancy.
-US Objections: desire to develop new weapons; stockpile maintenance.
Who are the next proliferators:
India: fear of China; Pakistan; prestige. “Atoms for peace”.
Israel: fear of Arab states. France.
Pakistan: fear of India, China.
South Africa: Israel.
North Korea. USSR. Bargaining chip
Reasons States Acquire Nuclear Weapons
-Prestige
-Deterrence against conventional or nuclear threat
-Everyone else has them.
-Not offensive intent.
Why do states help states get nukes?
-Alliance commitments
-Common enemy
-Pooling of resources
-Profit motive
Keeping Nuke-Free
-Cost
-Nuclear allies
-Reputation
-Absence of security threat
World without nukes???
-Lots of more nuke states
-No more anarchy (increase in IO power).
-Nuclear war.