Info Final Ch 13

Front 1

demand planning

Back 1

the combined process of forecasting and managing customer demands to create a planned pattern of demand that meets the firm's operational and financial goals

Front 2

demand forecasting

Back 2

a decision process in which managers predict demand and make operational plans accordingly

Front 3

demand management

Back 3

a proactive approach in which managers attempt to influence either the pattern or consistency of demand

Front 4

stable pattern

Back 4

a consistent horizontal stream of demands

Front 5

seasonality and cycles

Back 5

regular demand patterns of repeating highs and lows

Front 6

trend

Back 6

the general sloping tendency of demand, either upward or downward, in a linear or non linear fashion

Front 7

shift or step change

Back 7

a one-time change in demand, usually due to some external influence on demand

Front 8

autocorrelation

Back 8

the correlation of current demand values with past demand values

Front 9

forecast error

Back 9

the difference between a forecast and the actual demand

Front 10

grassroots forecasting

Back 10

a technique that seeks inputs from people who are in close contact with customers and products

Front 11

executive judgement

Back 11

forecasting techniques that use input from high-level experienced managers

Front 12

historical analogy

Back 12

a forecasting technique that uses data and experience from similar products to forecast the demand for a new product

Front 13

marketing research

Back 13

a forecasting-technique that bases forecasts on the purchasing patterns and attitudes of current or potential customers

Front 14

Delphi method

Back 14

forecasts developed by asking a panel of experts to individually and repeatedly respond to a series of questions

Front 15

time series analysis models

Back 15

Forecasting models that compute forecasts using historical data arranged in the order of occurence

Front 16

naive model

Back 16

a simple forecasting approach that assumes that recent history is a good predictor of the near future

Front 17

moving average

Back 17

a forecasting model that computes a forecast as the average of demands over a number of immediate past periods

Front 18

weighted moving average

Back 18

a forecasting model that assigns a different weight to each period's demand according to its importance

Front 19

exponential smoothing

Back 19

a moving average approach that applies exponentially decreasing weights to each demand that occurred farther back in time

Front 20

smoothing coefficient

Back 20

a parameter indicating the weight given to the most recent demand

Front 21

regression analysis

Back 21

a mathematical approach for fitting an equation to a set of data

Front 22

simulation models

Back 22

sophisticated mathematical programs that offer forecasters the ability to evaluate different business scenarios that might yield different demand outcomes

Front 23

focused forecasting

Back 23

a combination of common sense inputs from frontline personnel and a computer simulation process

Front 24

forecast accuracy

Back 24

the measurement of how closely the forecast aligns with the observations over time

Front 25

forecast bias

Back 25

the tendency of a forecasting technique to continually over predict or under predict demand.

Front 26

mean absolute deviation

Back 26

the average size of forecast errors, irrespective of their directions

Front 27

postponable product

Back 27

a product designed so that it can be configured to its final form quickly and inexpensively once actual customer demand is known

Front 28

collaborative planning, forecasting and replenishment

Back 28

a method by which supply chain partners periodically share forecasts, demand plans and resource plans in order to reduce uncertainty and risk in meeting customer demand.