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11 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
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Define Risk
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Chance of injury, illness, or loss -> anything that can go wrong will go wrong, zero risk does not exist
- probability of individual or population developing adverse reaction following exposure to a hazard |
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What does Risk Analysis focus on?
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What can go wrong and how to respond
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What are the objectives of Risk Assessment
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- understand underlying principles of risk analysis
- demonstrate the application of RA - compare and contrast qualitative and quantitative approaches to RA - dose response assessment and exposure assessment |
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What are the steps in Risk Analysis
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1 - hazard identification
2 - risk assessment (qualitatively or quantitatively 3 - risk management - reduce the risks 4 - risk communication - how to prepare those potentially affected --> goal is to address what can go wrong and how can we cope with it |
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Steps in Qualitative Risk Analysis
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1 - frame right question
2 - identify the hazard 3 - outline a pathway - describe chain of events leading to negative outcome 4 - collect data and information 5 - estimate risk |
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What is the goal of a quantitative risk assessment?
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- quantify the likelihood of hazards and their effects
- compare alternate approaches to manipulating or controlling risk |
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Describe a Deterministic Simulation Model...
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- Input is constant value
- output is single value as product of individual probabilities for exposure, infection, and disease - does not capture uncertainty or variability |
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Describe the Stochastic, Probabilistic, or Monte Carlo simulation models...
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Quantitative...
- account for uncertainty and variability in input - quantify uncertainty in output - output expresses the distribution of probabilities |
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Overall goal of Risk Assessment models?
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- incorporating probability into risk assessment models
- understanding distributions - facilitates comparing options for risk managment |
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Steps in Quantitative Risk Assessment
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1 - define risk to be assessed
2 - identify the hazard(s) 3 - outline initial model pathway 4 - identify the inputs and obtain data 5 - adopt an iterative approach 6 - ensure clarity 7 - obtain feedback |
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What modeling provides a better picture of the potential risk given the uncertainty and variability of the input? why?
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Stochastic model
- quantitative modeling accounts for uncertainty and variability through the inputs |
