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37 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
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Civil War |
A war in which the main participants are within the same state, such as the government and a rebel group, that causes at least 1,000 battlefield deaths - have lead to more deaths since WWII than interstate wars |
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How do external factors influence civil wars? |
- Influence the onset, duration, and outcome of a civil conflict - Give money, arms, training, sanctuary |
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Spillover effects of civil war |
- Create refugee crisis - Human rights abuses (and mental effect) |
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Root of all civil wars? |
Some conflict of interests between the government and a subject of the population in two main sources: grievances and greed |
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Grievances |
- Discrimination - Subverting language or culture - blocking access to jobs or political office - Denying services (education, health care, infrastructure) |
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Greed |
Desire to control more economic resources, or privileged access to jobs |
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Separatist |
An actor that seeks to create an independent state on territory carved from an existing state. (generally happens when a group is concentrated) |
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Irredentist
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An actor that seeks to detach a region from once country and attach it to another, usually because of shared ethnic or religious ties. |
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Three factors that explain the emergence of organized, armed opposition groups |
1) Features of the group and its interests 2) Features of the country in which the group resides 3) Features of the international system that influence the possibilities for external support |
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Features of the group and its interests |
- Religion/ideology - Ethnic (majority of CWs, free rider issue) - Family (danger, one goes all go) - Money (bribes to soldiers) - Forcible recruitment |
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Features of the country in which the group resides |
- Regime type (elect vs. only remove through violence) - Government's repressive capability - Wealth (content + gov ability to put down rebels ) - Population (more likely in large countries) - Geography |
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Features of the international system that influence the possibilities for external support |
- Foreign investment |
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Proxy War |
Conflicts in which two opposing states fight by supporting opposite sides of another war, such as the government and rebels in a third state. |
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Potential for civil war arises when: |
1) There are groups of people within the country motivated by greed or grievances that put their interests in conflict with those of the government 2) Those people cannot pursue their grievances through regular political institutions 3) Those people can, owing to their own resources, foreign support, and/or the state's weakness, overcome the collective action problem to recruit enough fighters and purchase enough weaponry to pose a threat |
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Civil are as a bargaining failure: |
- Incomplete info (rebels hide) - Commitment problems (power changes switch favor between rebels and gov, if the government meets demands how to rebels know it will keep its word) - Indivisible issues (gov cant give in, rebs won't quit) |
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Insurgency |
A military strategy in which small, often lightly armed units engage in hit-and-run attacks against military, government, and civilian targets. |
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Asymmetric Warefare |
Armed conflict between actors with highly unequal military capabilities, such as when terrorists or rebel groups fight a strong state |
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COIN Operations |
Hearts and minds, provide security so civilians don't join rebellion and identify rebels, increase economy so they can't be bought out. Gives population an interest in the government's survival. |
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How can international efforts end civil wars and prevent them from reigniting? |
- Help solve commitment problems in cease fires. - Economic and political reconstruction - Peacekeeping operations - Restrict ability of rebels to finance themselves |
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What is the best long run cure for civil wars? |
Economic development and democratization |
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Terrorism |
The use or threatened use of violence against noncombatant targets by individuals or non state groups for political ends |
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Extremests |
Actor whose interests are not widely share by others; individuals or groups that are politically weak relative to the demands they make |
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Terrorists are weak in two ways: |
- Compared to their targets (usually states) - Compared to the demands they make |
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How to terrorists organize? |
To make it hard to be caught - Small, self-contained, autonomous cells - Hide within sympathetic populations - Buy support |
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Terror from incomplete info |
- Terrorists misrepresent info (size, targets, objective) - Cells make total info hard to obtain - No bargaining between states and terrorists before the violence starts, bc the attacks are secretive |
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Terror from commitment problems |
- Promise to stop future attacks may not be credible - Gov promises might not be credible - Ter. can alleviate by publicly denouncing terror, disarming, and giving full info on cells. |
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Terror from Indivisibilities |
- "We don't negotiate with terrorists." - Land, lives. |
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Four main strategies of terrorists: |
Coercion, provocation, spoiling, outbidding |
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Coercion |
A strategy of imposing or threatening to impose costs on other actors in order to induce a change in their behavior. attacks are a form of costly signaling ex: Pab.Esc |
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Provocation |
A strategy of terrorist attacks intended to provoke the target government into making a disproportionate response that alienates moderates in the terrorists home society or in other sympathetic audiences. ex: ISIS trying to draw in the US Retaliatory strikes with civilian deaths |
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Spoiling |
A strategy of terrorist attacks intended to sabotage a prospective peace between the target and a moderate leadership from the terrorists' home country. (If country A is negotiating with country B, and country B cannot control its extremists, country A will think of country B as less credible) |
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Outbidding |
A strategy of terrorist attacks designed to demonstrate superior capability and commitment relative to other groups devoted to the same cause. ex: Pro-palistinian groups try to escalate to outcompete each other |
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Can terrorists be deterred? |
- Most experts skeptical a) Retaliation may just play into their hands b) Not credible threat of retaliation (for instance, terrorists may be hiding in Germany or retaliation would involve mass civilian deaths) |
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Preemption |
States take the initiative and attempt to disrupt or destroy terrorists and their networks before they attack. Can be military or non military (surveillance, interrogation) can be costly |
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Defensive measures |
Measures to guard against terrorists attacks - Include airport security, fortification of embassies, armed guards, inspections. Raise the costs of attack, no collateral damage Can't protect everything, and may just redirect focus of attacks. |
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Criminalization |
Reactionary but effective in disrupting terror by subjecting terrorists to the judicial system and prison |
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Negation and Compromise |
- Most likely to fail - Most states don't negotiate with terrorists for fear of legitimizing them |
