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12 Cards in this Set

  • Front
  • Back

Expected returns

Based on the probability of possible outcomes




"expected" means average if the process is repeated many times




does not have to be a possible return

Variance and standard deviation

Measure the volatility of returns

Portfolio

Collection of assets




An asset's risk and return are important in how they affect the risk and return of the portfolio




The risk-return trade-off for a portfolio is measured by the portfolio expected return and standard deviation, just as with individual assets

Portfolio expected returns

the weighted average of the expected returns of the respective assets in the portfolio

Announcements, News, and Market Efficiency

Announcements and news contain both an expected component and surprise component




Surprise component effects stock's price and therefore its return




The easier is it to trade on surprises, the more efficient markets should be

Systematic risk

Risk factors that affect a large number of assets (cannot be diversified away)




also known as non-diversifiable risk or market risk




Example: surprise in actual GDP growth, inflation rates, Fed's surprise change in interest rate policy

Unsystematic Risk

Risk factors that affect a limited number of assets




Also known as diversifiable risk, unique risk, firm-specific risk, asset-specific risk, and idiosyncratic risk




Example: labor strikes, management turnover

The Diversification Principle

Diversification can substantially reduce volatility of returns without an equivalent reduction in expected returns




Eliminates some but NOT all risks




Portfolio diversification is the investment in several different asset classes or sectors




Diversification is NOT just holding a lot of assets

Total risk

Systematic risk + unsystematic risk




Standard deviation of returns is a measure of total risk

Capital Asset Pricing Model

Expected return on an investment is equal to the risk free rate plus a risk premium proportional to the amount of systematic risk (measured by beta)





Beta

A beta of 1 implies the asset has the same systematic risk as the overall market




A beta<1 implies the asset has less systematic risk than the overall market




A beta>1 implies the asset has more systematic risk than the overall market



Higher beta leads to higher equity risk premium and hence higher expected return for the stock

Security market line (SML)

represents market equilibrium




SML is a positively sloped straight line showing the relationship between expected return and beta




The intercept is the (nominal) risk-free rate




The slope is the market risk premium




If reward to risk ratio is high the stock plots ABOVE the SML, and the stock is over-valued.




If reward to risk ratio is low the stock plots BELOW the SML, and the stock is under-valued.