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24 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
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strategy relating to the percentage of capacity being used
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yeild management
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two uses for forecasts
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to help managers plan the system and
to help them plan the use of the system |
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planning the use of the system involves what type of planning
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short to mid range planning, inventory, work force levels, purchasing and production, budgeting and scheduling
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Features common to all forecasts are
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assume that what continued in the past will continue in the future
rarely perfect groups more accurate than individual items s/t more accurate than l/t |
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flexible business organizations, require a ___ forecast horison
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shorter
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Elements of a good forecast are
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timely
accurate reliable exist in meaningful units written simple and easy to understand cost-effective |
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the steps in the forecasting process are
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determine the purpose of the forecast
establish a time horizon obtain appropriate data make forecast monitor the forecast |
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two approaches to forecasting
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qualitative (soft)
quantitative (hard) |
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rely on the analysis of subjective inputs obtained from various sources
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judgemental forecasts
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projects past experiences into the future
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time-series forecasts
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use equations that consist of one or more explanatory variables that can be used to predict demand
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associative models
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a time ordered sequence of observations taken at regular intervals, used to make a prediction
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time series forecast
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Patterns in historical data usually take the form of
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trend
seasonality cycles irregular variations random variations |
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wavelike variations of more than a year's duration
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cycle
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short term, fairly regular variation
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seasonality
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unusual circumstances that cause variations in data
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irregular variations
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residual variations in data that ca nnot be explained by trend, seasonality, cycles, or irregular variations
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random variations
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a forecast that uses a single previous value of a time serices as a basis of a forecast
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naive forecast
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benefits of naive forecasting
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virtually no cost
quick and easy to prepare easily understood is a viable standard of comparison for other methods |
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term for random variation in historical data
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white noise
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Three techniques for averaging are
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moving average
weighted moving average exponential smoothing |
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a method of forecasting that assigns more weight to recent values in a series
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weighted moving average
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equation for exponential smoothing
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Next forecast = previous forecast + α (Actual – Previous forecast)
α is a smoothing constant |
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A linear trend equation has the form
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F=a+bt
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