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24 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
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Rationale Model of Decision Making
and Benfits |
1 Identify Problem
2 Generate alternative solutions 3 select solutions 4 implement/evaluate solutions Better quality decisions, makes the reasoning prominent, discourages personal advancment etc. |
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scenario technique
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Speculative forecast tool for identifying future states, givena certain set of environmental conditions
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Nonrational Models of Decision Making
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Explain how decisions are actually made.
Simon's Normative Model Garbage can model |
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Simon's Normative Model: Bounded rationality
Satisficing |
Decision makers are restricted/bounded by various constraints when making a decision.
S: Choosing a solution that's "good enough" |
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Garbage Can Model
and Practical implications |
decisions result from a complex mix of problems, solutions, participants, and choice opportunities
1presence of opportunity 2 political motives 3 Sensitive to current load 4 relative importance |
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Judgmental Heuristics
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rules of thumb or shortcuts people use to reduce information processing demands
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Availability Heuristic,
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base decision on information available in memory
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Representative Heuristic
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occurs when people estimate probability of and event (higher people from same college b/c last 2 were good)
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Confirmation Bias
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Subconsciously decide something and only seek info to support decision and ignore others
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Anchoring Bias
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Decision is influenced by information received about the decision
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Overconfidence Bias
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tendency to be over confident about stuff
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Hindsight Bias
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knowledge of an outcome influence beliefs about the probability the we could have predicted the outcome earlier
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Framing Bias
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consider risks about gains differently than risks about losses
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Escalation of Commitment Bias
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stick to an ineffective course of action when it is unlikely the bad situation can be reversed
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Model of Intuition Types and sources
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Hulistic Hunches- subconcious use of information stored in memory
Automated experiences- previously learned info Expertise Feelings |
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Types of Creativity
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Creation
Synthesis Modification |
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5 Stages of creative process
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1 preparation
2 concentration 3 incubation 4 illumination 5 verification |
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Group decision making should be used if
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1 additional info would increase decision quality
2 acceptance is important 3 people can be developed through participation |
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Brainstorming Rules (7)
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1 Defer Judgment
2 Build on other's ideas 3 Encourage Wild ones 4 Quantity of Quality 5 Be visual 6 FOCUS 7 One speaker at a time |
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Nominal Group Technique
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Convene
Round Robin of ideas Criticize/Defend for 30 seconds Rate Discus top choices |
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Delphi Technique
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anonymously generate ideas from dispersed experts
questionaires summarize/report usually through internet/email |
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Computer Aided Decision Making techniques
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chauffer driven- WWTBM
group driven- emails, ect. |
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Common Mistakes in Identifying the problem (4)
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1 Involving wrong people/ not enough
2 Framing the problem incorrectly 3 Failure to identify relationships in problems 4 Failure to find all facts |
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Risk adverse vs. Risk seeking
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gains vs losses
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