Black Swan Vocabulary

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academic libertarian

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someone who considers that knowledge is subjected to strict rules but not institutional authority- interest of organized knowledge is self-perpetuation, not necessarily truth

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appeles-style strategy

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seeking gains by collecting positive accidents from maximizing exposure to "good black swans"

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Barbell-style strategy

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taking both defensive attitue and excessively aggressive one at same time; protecting assets from all sources of uncertainty while allocating small portion for high risk strategies

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Bildungsphilister

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philistine with cosmetic, nongenuine culture- dogma-prone, cosmetic exposure to culture and shallow depth

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philistine

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person uninterested in intellectual pursuits; smug/ignorant anti-intellectual hostile to artistic/cultural values

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Pyrrhic victory

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victory with devastating cost to victor or terrible losses

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Black Swan Ethical Problem

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Black swans are unrepeatable; asymmetry between rewards of those who prevent and htose who cure

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Confirmation error (Platonic Confirmation)

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Tendency to look for instances that confirm your beliefs (model) and find them

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Empty Suit (Expert Problem)

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Professionals believed to be experts while really not statistically any more accurate than average people

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Epilogism

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theory-free method of looking at history by acumulating facts with minmal generalization and being conscious of side effects of making causal claims

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Epistemic arrogance

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measure the difference between what someone actually knows and how much he thinks he knows- excess implies arrogance; deficit huminity

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Epistemic opacity

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randomnes is the result of incomplete information at some layer. It is functionally indistinguishable from "true" or "physical" randomness

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Extremistan

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Province where total can be conceivably impacted by single observation

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Murphy's law

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everything that can go wrong will go wrong

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Godwin's law

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As an online discussion grows longer, the probability of a comparison involving Nazis or Hitler approaches 1

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Fallacy of silent evidence

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looking at history, we do not see the full story; only rosier parts of the process

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Fooled by randomness

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general confusing between luck/determinism; leads to superstitions

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Future blindness

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natural inability to take into account properties of the future

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Locke's madman

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somebody who makes impeccable and rigorous reasoning from faulty premises- producing phony models of uncertainty

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Lottery-ticket fallacy

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naïve analogy equating Black Swans to investing in lottery tickets; lottery tickets are not scalable

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scalable

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ability of product/network to accommodate growth

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Ludic fallacy

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uncertainty of the nerd; basing studies of chance on games and dice; (bell curve)

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Mandelbrotian Gray Swan

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Black Swans somewhat able to take into account, but for which it is not possible to completely figure out the properties and produce precise calculations

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Mediocristan

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province dominated by mediocre; few extreme successes/failures; bell curve grounded

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Narrative discipline

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Fitting convincing and well-soiunding story to past, opposed to experimental discipline

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Narrative fallacy

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need to fit a story or pattern to series of connected or disconnected facts; data mining

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Nerd knowledge

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belief that what annot be Platonized and studied does not exist or is not worth considering

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Platonic fold

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place where Platonic representation enters into contact with reality and you can see side effects of models

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Platonicity

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focus on pure, well-defined, easily discernible objects like trianles, friendships, at the cost of ignorming objects of seemingly messier and less tractable structures

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Probability distribution

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model used to calculate odds of different events, hhow "distrubuted"

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Randomness as incomplete information

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What I cannot guess is random because my knowledge of the causes is incomplete; it is not that the process is truly unpredictable

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Retrospective distortion

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examining past events without adjusting for forward passage of time- leads to illusion of posterior predictability

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Reverse-engineering problem

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Easier to predict ice cube melting into puddle than puddle's former shape as an ice cube- makes narrative accounts suspicious

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Round-trip fallacy

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confusion of absence of evidence of black swans for evicence of absence of black swans

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Scandal of prediction

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poor prediction record in some forcasting entities mixed with verbose commentary and lacy of awarenesss of own dire past record

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scorn of abstract

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favoring contextualized thinking over more abstract though more relavent matters

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Statistical regress argument

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Discovering of distribution is based on past, standardized distribution- severe regress argument

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inductive reasoning

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detailed facts to generalized principles

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deductive reasoning

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reasoning from general to particular