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55 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
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Futuristic Models
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form of models that make scientific predictions about the future conditions of human kind based on population size, economic and social conditions, 50-200 years into the future
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Why did futuristic models become popular in the 1970s?
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b/c of an ecological crisis(shortage of oil) and quantifiable data became more available
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What are the futuristic models?
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Limits to Growth by Meadows and Meadows
World Economic Development by Kahn |
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What are the assumptions of the Meadows model?
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global model, 5 variables (population, investment in industry, food production, depletion of unrenewable resources, extent of pollution)
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What does the Meadows model conclude will happen?
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from 2000 onward, depletion of energy and pollution will skyrocket and will cause a population crash
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What is the solution to the Meadows model?
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Must set goals for an equilibrium between resources and standard of living
1. by 1975 set birthrate equal to deathrate 2. increase energy efficiency 4X 3. tax industrial innovations high and promote services 4. culture needs to change from idealizing social-economic growth to sustainable yield 5. get used to idea that world economy is something equivalent to a limited pie which is not expanding 6. shift resources from rich to poor countries for even distribution of wealth 7. don't wait in implementing all goals |
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What are the problems of the solutions of the Meadows model?
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-doesn't take into account that industrialization is spreading into developed countries
-removing incentives for technology prohibits ability to solve problems -how can you implement the policies to create change? -limited pie would mean more conflict |
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What are the assumptions of the Kahn model?
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global, same variables as Meadows but also includes renewable energy, future problems are due to "growing pains",applications of minimum intelligence and good management will cause economic growth for a considerable amount of time that will narrow the gap between the rich and the poor, don't predict doom
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What is the solution of the Kahn model?
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continue the same trends
by 2200, there will be 15 bil ppl GWP will be $60,000 |
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What are the stages of the Kahn model?
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Super-Industrial economies/states
Post-Industrial stage Post Industrial globalization |
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Kahn's super-industrial stage
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1956-1995
A demographic transition shows that rapid population increase can't continue forever |
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Kahn's post-industrial stage
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1996-2025
-producing the necessities of life becomes easy -quaternary sector becomes dominant force (entertainment) -formally poor countries will become super-industrial |
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What are the 4 sectors?
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Primary-agriculture, mining
Secondary-manufacturing, industry Tertiary-services Quaternary-entertainment |
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Kahn's post-industrial globalization stage
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2026-2200
all societies will be post-industrial |
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What are some positive events that the models couldn't predict?
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collapse of Soviet Union/end of Cold War, opening of China in 1978, India in 1990s, Internet/Personal computer revolution, biotechnological and genetic engineering revolution
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What are some negative events that the models couldn't predict?
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Greenhouse effect/global warming, rise of ethnic/religious conflict, sub-Sahara Africa, US is only military superpower, current economic downturn due to financial crisis
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What are the 3 major types of societies?
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bands, tribes, states
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What are bands?
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small (50-600 ppl), politically independent units
-mobile-hunting/gathering -territories for roaming, but no formal political leadership -leaders are the "Big Men" -egalitarian |
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What are tribes?
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larger (1000s-200,000 ppl)
-based on agriculture/pastoralism -more settled in permanent villages -lack a formal govt w/ administrative bureaucracy -leadership positions can be inherited -no classes -can be segmentary or chiefdom |
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What are segmentary tribes?
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small, made up of segments that are not politically unified (Amazon, New Guinea)
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What are chiefdom tribes?
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larger, with overall chief and politically centralized (Zulu, Hawaii)
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What are states?
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very large population (100,000 to millions)
-rely on intensive agriculture (now industry as well) urbanization -formal govt w/ leader and bureaucracy -not egalitarian -can be pre-industrial/agrarian, colonized, contemporary LDCs, or developed |
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What are the dimensions of the models and theories of social-culture change?
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1. level of organization that the models focus on
2. degree of abstraction 3. time 4. cause of change 5. degree/amount of change 6. trajectory of change |
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Dimensions:
What are the levels of organization that the models focus on? |
individual, groups, communities, regions/& classes, societies/cultures, cultural area/political alliance, global
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Dimensions:
What is the degree of abstraction? |
how general or how concrete will you be when looking at these levels
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Dimensions:
What is defined as time? |
short to secular/long times
individual-historic-cultural evolution-geologic |
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Dimensions:
What are the causes of change? |
a.) material-population, environmental, technological/economic
b.) sociopolitical-competition over power c.) ideational/mental factors-knowledge, religion, attitude |
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Dimensions:
What is the degree/amount of change? |
can be processual, segmentary, structural
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Dimensions:
Degree/amount -processual change |
circulation of various rewards, facilities, and personnel through an existing system
-changes in a system that maintains it -significant, but often invisible |
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Dimensions:
Degree/amount -segmentary change |
proliferation of additional units that do not differ quantitatively from existing units
-population growth, increasing businesses -each unit is the same, expansion of whole entity -sort of aware |
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Dimensions:
Degree/amount -structural change |
emergence of relatively new organizations, systems of knowledge, norms and values
-quality of society has changed -most visible |
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Dimensions:
Degree/amount Linkages |
1. segmentary influences structural
-ex: population growth at fast rate/over long period of time 2. processual influences structural change/vise-versa ex: # of children at home-structural for home, but processual for village |
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Dimensions:
What are the trajectories of change? |
-No change/processual
-Cyclical -Stochastic -Directional -Combo of Cyclical and Directional |
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What are the Cultural Evolutionary Models?
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Classical and Neo-Evolution
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What does Classical Cultural Evolution state?
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-continuous long-term change from simpler cultural forms to more complex ones
-unilinear system: single-line development, cultures will go through the same stages |
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Herbert Spencer
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-comparative study of societies/cultures
-1st stage-Military Societies -2nd stage-Industrial Societies -only fittest/most adaptive societies will survives -based on Darwin ideas and that population will increase over time |
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Spencer:
What are Military societies? |
-authoritarian
-economy politically controlled -low division of labor -closed to migration/information -homogenous culture -ex: tribes, but can also be large |
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Spencer:
What are Industrial societies? |
-democratic
-markets are free high division of labor -open to outside -more complex |
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Lewis Henry Morgan
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-technology schemes and marriage schemes
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Morgan:
What are the stages of technology? |
1. savagery-lower stage, ms, us
2. barbarism-lower stage, ms, us 3. civilization |
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Morgan:
What are the stages of marriage? |
1. promiscuity
2. brother-sister 3. paternal polyandry/sororal polyandry 4. non-exclusive cohabitation of single pairs 5. patriarchal polygyny 6. monogamy |
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Marx:
Primitive Communism |
-small societies, egalitarian, poor b/c of simple technology, but happy b/c they're not exploited
-Marx considered them ideal |
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Marx:
Advanced Communism |
-millions of people, wealthy societies, egalitarian, no formal government
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What are the assumptions of the classical model?
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-unilinear
-psychic unity -people tend to be creative and innovative -evolutions is progressive |
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What were some of the criticisms of the classical model?
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-data was lacking to support these ideas
-why should evolution by unilinear? -why ignore diffusion? -why assume moral/ethnic progression is better in one place over another? |
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What are the sub-models of Neo-Evolution?
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-multilinear/specific cultural evolution
-general/universal cultural evolution |
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What is multilinear/specific cultural evolution?
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-look at a particular society to trace out the specific evolutionary experience
-goal is to compare the evolution of various specific societies and see if there are general patterns to make generalizations -not abstract, inductive (know Hawaii example) |
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What consisted of the first stage of Hawaiian evolution?
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-came in 500 AD, probably from Tahiti
-overtime, they had an increased knowledge of navigation -this stage lasted until 1200 -pop went from 50-50,000 lived in coastal part -segmentary tribes |
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What consisted of the second stage of Hawaiian evolution?
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1200-1500
-qualitative change -more than 100,000 ppl -ppl begin to move inland-creates problems through deforestation and erosion -appearance of chiefdoms |
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What consisted of the third stage of Hawaiian evolution?
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1500-1778
-pop stabilized -irrigation and terracing stop deforestation and erosion -unity never successful -1778, Cook discovered it, and major diffusion began |
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After we can't put Hawaii in stages anymore, what happens next?
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1810- one chief, unity
1840- constitutional monarchy established 1896- America annexed it as a protectorate 1941- Pearl Harbor 1959- statehood |
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What is general/universal cultural evolution?
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-long-term, directional changes of human society and culture abstracted from particular time, place, and specific population
-want to recreate human society in its totality -human culture in general has gone through these trends |
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According to general/universal cultural evolution, what are the trends that cultures go through?
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-increasing energy capturing capacity
-increasing ability to generate and manipulate information -population growth social complexity |
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What is an example of increasing social and political complexity with generating energy?
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-domestic units
-bands segmentary tribes -chiefdoms -classical city-states -pre-industrial agrarian states (PIAS) decentralized -PIAS centralized -semi-industrial states (Phase I & II) -industrialized states -contemporary blocks -global state |
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What are the definitions acculturation?
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1. involves those changes produced in a culture by another culture resulting in increasing similarity between the two
-narrow definition 2. involves those phenomena which result when groups having different cultures come into contact, with subsequent changes in the original cultural patterns of either or both groups -broader |
