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12 Cards in this Set
- Front
- Back
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What is Global Supply Chain Management? |
The design, production, and improvement of the processes and systems that create and deliver all products and services worldwide. |
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How does forecasting relate to operations management? |
Use forecasts to make decisions involving supplier selection, process selection, capacity planning, and facility layout
Continual decisions about purchasing, production planning, scheduling, and inventory (doTERRA) |
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How do forecasting, capacity, scheduling, and project management relate to operations management? |
forecasting affects everything with operations management |
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What are the main types of forecasting? |
Qualitative Time Series Analysis: short, medium, long Simple moving average, weighted moving average, exponential smoothing Causal Relationships Simulation |
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Types of qualitative forecasting |
Delphi Method: panel of experts - opinions summarized Grass Roots: sales persons, sometimes too optimistic Market Research: industry specific Panel Consensus: Historical Analogy: Executive Judgment: |
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Quantitative Forecasting |
Simple moving Average Weighted moving average Exponential smoothing Exponential Smoothing with trend (lag behind) Linear Regression Simulation
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What roles do trends and variability in demand (including seasonality) play in forecasting? |
upward or downward trend in data cases the exponential forecast to always lag behind (be above or below) the actual
Alpha = smooths difference between A, F Delta = smooths the variability from trends and seasonality |
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Regression |
two or more correlated variables - used to product one variable given the other
Long-term forecasting Assumes linear (y=a+bx) - PAGE 59 |
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When is it in/appropriate to use different forecasting methods |
Weighted moving average = last period gets the most weight Exponential smoothing = last period gets ALL the weight Simple moving average = works when demand is constant (EOQ) Regression = long-term, assumes linear |
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Appropriate time for forecasting? |
Simple moving average: when demand is constant (EOQ) weighted moving avg: last period gets the most weight Exponential smoothing: last period gets ALL weight |
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What is time series analysis? |
time series analysis looks at historical data in order to make decisions about future forecasts |
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Root Beer Game key points |
bullwhip effect is an observed phenomenon in forecast-driven distribution channels. It refers to a trend of larger and larger swings in inventory in response to changes in customer demand, as one looks at firms further back in the supply chain for a product.
EXPONENTIAL SWINGS |
