In conclusion, the overall aim of our project was to research the mathematical modelling of HIV and then create our own simulation. Obviously with our simulation, and in fact any simulation, we faced various difficulties. In definition, a simulation is an imitation or representation of a system using another system. (Dictionary.com) Thus by definition it will never be truly accurate to real life, the goal is to make it as accurate as possible and to take into account the margin of errors in the results obtained. As accurately as possible is exactly what we have tried to do. The research we conducted gave us our basis to form our equations and assumptions.
Within the research part of the report we covered two different HIV models which aren’t …show more content…
There were many reasons of which we decided that this was the best demographic to use. Firstly and most importantly the data was available to us. We obtained our data from National Aids Trust (NAT), the official body and statistic keeper of HIV in the UK. This was a priority reason due to the fact it is not always easy to obtain accurate statistics. This is especially true in third world countries, where most statistics for Birth, Infection and Mortality are not precise. Our second reason for choosing this demographic is that young adults who have just passed the age of consent for heterosexual relations in this country are in common opinion the most sexually active, therefore most likely to transmit the disease. Thirdly, we assumed that the younger generation that we selected would be less informed and less responsible if they were carriers of the virus, and we can infer from this that they would again be more likely to spread the virus. Finally this younger generation, are the adults of the future, and therefore the most important generation. If an epidemic is to spread and infect this generation is would be catastrophic. This generation are also the parents of the future, and thus if they are infected they might pass that disease onto their children. If this is the case we can use the Generating Function model we researched to simulate any further repercussions.
Now to discuss our models, as the aim stated previously, we want ours to be accurate as possible to real life. This is because we want to prevent the spread of the virus, and clearly it is not practical nor morally correct to release the virus among the population, we have to use models in this field. So the intention is to create a usable model, but with every model we have to conduct sensitivity
Within the research part of the report we covered two different HIV models which aren’t …show more content…
There were many reasons of which we decided that this was the best demographic to use. Firstly and most importantly the data was available to us. We obtained our data from National Aids Trust (NAT), the official body and statistic keeper of HIV in the UK. This was a priority reason due to the fact it is not always easy to obtain accurate statistics. This is especially true in third world countries, where most statistics for Birth, Infection and Mortality are not precise. Our second reason for choosing this demographic is that young adults who have just passed the age of consent for heterosexual relations in this country are in common opinion the most sexually active, therefore most likely to transmit the disease. Thirdly, we assumed that the younger generation that we selected would be less informed and less responsible if they were carriers of the virus, and we can infer from this that they would again be more likely to spread the virus. Finally this younger generation, are the adults of the future, and therefore the most important generation. If an epidemic is to spread and infect this generation is would be catastrophic. This generation are also the parents of the future, and thus if they are infected they might pass that disease onto their children. If this is the case we can use the Generating Function model we researched to simulate any further repercussions.
Now to discuss our models, as the aim stated previously, we want ours to be accurate as possible to real life. This is because we want to prevent the spread of the virus, and clearly it is not practical nor morally correct to release the virus among the population, we have to use models in this field. So the intention is to create a usable model, but with every model we have to conduct sensitivity